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@Article{SilvaRiBrSoLoMi:2018:CoExHy,
               author = "Silva, Yuri B. da Silva e and Ribeiro, Bruno R. and Brum, Fernanda 
                         Thiesen and Soares Filho, Britaldo and Loyola, Rafael and 
                         Michalski, Fernanda",
          affiliation = "{Universidade Federal do Amap{\'a} (UFAP)} and {Universidade 
                         Federal de Goi{\'a}s (UFG)} and {Universidade Federal de 
                         Goi{\'a}s (UFG)} and {Universidade Federal de Minas Gerais} and 
                         {Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais (INPE)} and 
                         {Universidade Federal do Amap{\'a} (UFAP)}",
                title = "Combined exposure to hydroelectric expansion, climate change and 
                         forest loss jeopardies amphibians in the Brazilian Amazon",
              journal = "Diversity and Distributions",
                 year = "2018",
               volume = "24",
               number = "8",
                pages = "1072--1082",
                month = "Aug.",
             keywords = "conservation science, distribution range, extinction risk, habitat 
                         loss, land cover, range shift.",
             abstract = "Aim: Human-driven impacts constantly threat amphibians, even in 
                         largely protected regions such as the Amazon. The Brazilian Amazon 
                         is home to a great diversity of amphibians, several of them 
                         currently threatened with extinction. We investigated how climate 
                         change, deforestation and establishment of hydroelectric dams 
                         could affect the geographic distribution of Amazonian amphibians 
                         by 2030 and midcentury. Location: The Brazilian Amazon. Methods: 
                         We overlapped the geographic distribution of 255 species with the 
                         location of hydroelectric dams, models of deforestation and 
                         climate change scenarios for the future. Results: We found that 
                         nearly 67% of all species and 54% of species with high degree of 
                         endemism within the Legal Brazilian Amazon would lose habitats due 
                         to the hydroelectric overlapping. In addition, deforestation is 
                         also a potential threat to amphibians, but had a smaller impact 
                         compared to the likely changes in climate. The largest potential 
                         range loss would be caused by the likely increase in temperature. 
                         We found that five amphibian families would have at least half of 
                         the species with over 50% of potential distribution range within 
                         the Legal Brazilian Amazon limits threatened by climate change 
                         between 2030 and 2050. Main conclusions: Amphibians in the Amazon 
                         are highly vulnerable to climate change, which may cause, directly 
                         or indirectly, deleterious biological changes for the group. Under 
                         modelled scenarios, the Brazilian Government needs to plan for the 
                         development of the Amazon prioritizing landscape changes of low 
                         environmental impact and economic development to ensure that such 
                         changes do not cause major impacts on amphibian species while 
                         reducing the emission of greenhouse gases.",
                  doi = "10.1111/ddi.12745",
                  url = "http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/ddi.12745",
                 issn = "1366-9516",
             language = "en",
           targetfile = "silva_combined.pdf",
        urlaccessdate = "05 dez. 2020"
}


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