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@Article{SoterroniMCCOASBPKPKEVR:2018:FuEnAg,
               author = "Soterroni, Aline C. and Mosnier, Aline and Carvalho, Alexandre X. 
                         Y. and Camara, Gilberto and Obersteiner, Michael and Andrade Neto, 
                         Pedro Ribeiro de and Souza, Ricardo Cartaxo Modesto de and Brock, 
                         Rebecca and Pirker, Johannes and Kraxner, Florian and Petr, 
                         Havl{\'{\i}}k and Kapos, Valerie and Ermgassen, Erasmus K. H. J. 
                         zu and Valin, Hugo and Ramos, Fernando Manuel",
          affiliation = "{International Institute for Applied System Analysis} and 
                         {International Institute for Applied System Analysis} and 
                         {Instituto de Pesquisa Econ{\^o}mica Aplicada (IPEA)} and 
                         {Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais (INPE)} and 
                         {International Institute for Applied System Analysis} and 
                         {Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais (INPE)} and {Instituto 
                         Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais (INPE)} and {UN Environment World 
                         Conservation Monitoring Centre} and {International Institute for 
                         Applied System Analysis} and {International Institute for Applied 
                         System Analysis} and {International Institute for Applied System 
                         Analysis} and {UN Environment World Conservation Monitoring 
                         Centre} and {University of Cambridge} and {International Institute 
                         for Applied System Analysis} and {Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas 
                         Espaciais (INPE)}",
                title = "Future environmental and agricultural impacts of Brazil's Forest 
                         Code",
              journal = "Environmental Research Letters",
                 year = "2018",
               volume = "13",
               number = "7",
                pages = "e074021",
                month = "July",
             keywords = "Brazil's Forest Code, environmental protection, agricultural 
                         production, environmental legislation, imperfect enforcement, full 
                         enforcement, deforestation.",
             abstract = "The role of improving the enforcement of Brazil's Forest Code in 
                         reducing deforestation in the Amazon has been highlighted in many 
                         studies. However, in a context of strong political pressure for 
                         loosening environmental protections, the future impacts of a 
                         nationwide implementation of the Forest Code on both environment 
                         and agriculture remain poorly understood. Here, we present a 
                         spatially explicit assessment of Brazil's 2012 Forest Code through 
                         the year 2050; specifically, we use a partial equilibrium economic 
                         model that provides a globally consistent national modeling 
                         framework with detailed representation of the agricultural sector 
                         and spatially explicit land-use change. We test for the combined 
                         or isolated impacts of the different measures of the Forest Code, 
                         including deforestation control and obligatory forest restoration 
                         with or without environmental reserve quotas. Our results show 
                         that, if rigorously enforced, the Forest Code could prevent a net 
                         loss of 53.4 million hectares (Mha) of forest and native 
                         vegetation by 2050, 43.1 Mha (81%) of which are in the Amazon 
                         alone. The control of illegal deforestation promotes the largest 
                         environmental benefits, but the obligatory restoration of 
                         illegally deforested areas creates 12.9Mha of new forested area. 
                         Environmental reserve quotas further protect 5.8Mha of undisturbed 
                         natural vegetation. Compared to a scenario without the Forest 
                         Code, by 2050, cropland area is only reduced by 4% and the cattle 
                         herd by 8%. Our results show that compliance with the Forest Code 
                         requires an increase in cattle productivity of 56% over four 
                         decades, with a combination of a higher use of supplements and an 
                         adoption of semi-intensive pasture management. We estimate that 
                         the enforcement of the Forest Code could contribute up to 1.03 
                         PgCO(2)e to the ambitious GHG emissions reduction target set by 
                         Brazil for 2030.",
                  doi = "10.1088/1748-9326/aaccbb",
                  url = "http://dx.doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/aaccbb",
                 issn = "1748-9326",
             language = "en",
           targetfile = "soterroni_future.pdf",
        urlaccessdate = "24 nov. 2020"
}


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