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@Article{PattnayakGTBBBSCC:2018:AdNeEv,
               author = "Pattnayak, K. C. and Gloor, E. and Tindall, J. C. and Brienen, R. 
                         J. W. and Barichivich, J. and Baker, J. C. A. and Spracklen, D. V. 
                         and Cintra, B. B. L. and Coelho, Caio Augusto dos Santos",
          affiliation = "{University of Leeds} and {University of Leeds} and {University of 
                         Leeds} and {University of Leeds} and {University of Leeds} and 
                         {University of Leeds} and {University of Leeds} and {University of 
                         Leeds} and {Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais (INPE)}",
                title = "Adding new evidence to the attribution puzzle of the recent water 
                         shortage over S{\~a}o Paulo (Brazil)",
              journal = "Tellus Series A: Dynamic Meteorology and Oceanography",
                 year = "2018",
               volume = "70",
                pages = "e1481690",
                month = "June",
             keywords = "water shortages, deforestation, pattern recognition algorithm, 
                         climate change, sea surface temperature anomaly.",
             abstract = "Sao Paulo, Brazil has experienced severe water shortages and 
                         record low levels of its water reservoirs in 2013-2014. We 
                         evaluate the contributions of Amazon deforestation and climate 
                         change to low precipitation levels using a modelling approach, and 
                         address whether similar precipitation anomalies might occur more 
                         frequently in a warming world. Precipitation records from INMET 
                         show that the dry anomaly extended over a fairly large region to 
                         the north of Sao Paulo. Unique features of this event were 
                         anomalous sea surface temperature (SST) patterns in the Southern 
                         Atlantic, an extension of the sub tropical high into the Sao Paulo 
                         region and moisture flux divergence over Sao Paulo. The SST 
                         anomalies were very similar in 2013/14 and 2014/15, suggesting 
                         they played a major role in forcing the dry conditions. The SST 
                         anomalies consisted of three zonal bands: a cold band in the 
                         tropics, a warm band to the south of Sao Paulo and another cold 
                         band poleward of 40 S. We performed ensemble climate simulations 
                         with observed SSTs prescribed, vegetation cover either fixed at 
                         1870 levels or varying over time, and greenhouse gases (GHGs) 
                         either fixed at preindustrial levels (280 ppm CO2) or varying over 
                         time. These simulations exhibit similar precipitation deficits 
                         over the Sao Paulo region in 2013/14. From this, we infer that SST 
                         patterns and the associated large-scale state of the atmosphere 
                         were important factors in determining the precipitation anomalies, 
                         while deforestation and increased GHGs only weakly modulated the 
                         signal. Finally, analyses of future climate simulations from CMIP5 
                         models indicate that the frequency of such precipitation anomalies 
                         is not likely to change in a warmer climate.",
                  doi = "10.1080/16000870.2018.1481690",
                  url = "http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/16000870.2018.1481690",
                 issn = "0280-6495",
             language = "en",
           targetfile = "pattnayak_adding.pdf",
        urlaccessdate = "04 dez. 2020"
}


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