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@Article{AbeLoDiCoSaNo:2018:MoEfHi,
               author = "Abe, Camila Andrade and Lobo, Felipe de Lucia and Dibike, Yonas 
                         Berhan and Costa, Maycira Pereira de Farias and Santos, Vanessa 
                         dos and Novo, Evlyn M{\'a}rcia Le{\~a}o de Moraes",
          affiliation = "{Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais (INPE)} and {Instituto 
                         Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais (INPE)} and {Environment and 
                         Climate Change Canada} and {University of Victoria} and 
                         {Universit{\'e} de Caen Normandie} and {Instituto Nacional de 
                         Pesquisas Espaciais (INPE)}",
                title = "Modelling the effects of historical and future land cover changes 
                         on the hydrology of an Amazonian basin",
              journal = "Water (Switzerland)",
                 year = "2018",
               volume = "10",
               number = "7",
                pages = "e932",
                month = "July",
             keywords = "water balance, land cover change, Amazon, hydrological modelling, 
                         water resources.",
             abstract = "Land cover changes (LCC) affect the water balance (WB), changing 
                         surface runoff (SurfQ), evapotranspiration (ET), groundwater (GW) 
                         regimes, and streamflow (Q). The Tapaj{\'o}s Basin (southeastern 
                         Amazon) has experienced LCC over the last 40 years, with 
                         increasing LCC rates projected for the near future. Several 
                         studies have addressed the effects of climate changes on the 
                         regions hydrology, but few have explored the effects of LCC on its 
                         hydrological regime. In this study, the Soil and Water Assessment 
                         Tool (SWAT) was applied to model the LCC effects on the hydrology 
                         of the Upper Crepori River Basin (medium Tapaj{\'o}s Basin), 
                         using historical and projected LCC based on conservation policies 
                         (GOV_2050) and on the Business as Usual trend (BAU_2050). LCC that 
                         occurred from 1973 to 2012, increased Q by 2.5%, without 
                         noticeably altering the average annual WB. The future GOV_2050 and 
                         BAU_2050 scenarios increased SurfQ by 238.87% and 300.90%, and Q 
                         by 2.53% and 2.97%, respectively, and reduced GW by 4.00% and 
                         5.21%, and ET by 2.07% and 2.43%, respectively. Results suggest 
                         that the increase in deforestation will intensify floods and 
                         low-flow events, and that the conservation policies considered in 
                         the GOV_2050 scenario may still compromise the regions hydrology 
                         at a comparable level to that of the BAU_2050.",
                  doi = "10.3390/w10070932",
                  url = "http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/w10070932",
                 issn = "2073-4441",
             language = "en",
           targetfile = "abe_modelling.pdf",
        urlaccessdate = "24 nov. 2020"
}


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