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@Article{BettsJKKKWAA:2018:SuPrRe,
               author = "Betts, Richard A. and Jones, Chris D. and Knight, Jeff R. and 
                         Keeling, Ralph F. and Kennedy, John J. and Wiltshire, Andrew J. 
                         and Andrew, Robbie M. and Arag{\~a}o, Luiz Eduardo Oliveira e 
                         Cruz de",
          affiliation = "{Met Office Hadley Centre} and {Met Office Hadley Centre} and {Met 
                         Office Hadley Centre} and {University of California San Diego} and 
                         {Met Office Hadley Centre} and {Met Office Hadley Centre} and 
                         {CICERO Center for International Climate Research} and {Instituto 
                         Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais (INPE)}",
                title = "A successful prediction of the record CO2 rise associated with the 
                         2015/2016 El Nino",
              journal = "Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B: Biological 
                         Sciences",
                 year = "2018",
               volume = "373",
               number = "1760",
                pages = "e20170301",
                month = "nov.",
             keywords = "El Nino, carbon dioxide rise, Mauna Loa, seasonal forecast, 
                         terrestrial biosphere, emissions.",
             abstract = "In early 2016, we predicted that the annual rise in carbon dioxide 
                         concentration at Mauna Loa would be the largest on record. Our 
                         forecast used a statistical relationship between observed and 
                         forecast sea surface temperatures in the Nino 3.4 region and the 
                         annual CO2 rise. Here, we provide a formal verification of that 
                         forecast. The observed rise of 3.4 ppm relative to 2015 was within 
                         the forecast range of 3.15 +/- 0.53 ppm, so the prediction was 
                         successful. A global terrestrial biosphere model supports the 
                         expectation that the El Nino weakened the tropical land carbon 
                         sink. We estimate that the El Nino contributed approximately 25% 
                         to the record rise in CO2, with 75% due to anthropogenic 
                         emissions. The 2015/2016 CO2 rise was greater than that following 
                         the previous large El Nino in 1997/1998, because anthropogenic 
                         emissions had increased. We had also correctly predicted that 2016 
                         would be the first year with monthly mean CO2 above 400 ppm all 
                         year round. We now estimate that atmospheric CO2 at Mauna Loa 
                         would have remained above 400 ppm all year round in 2016 even if 
                         the El Nino had not occurred, contrary to our previous 
                         expectations based on a simple extrapolation of previous trends.",
                  doi = "10.1098/rstb.2017.0301",
                  url = "http://dx.doi.org/10.1098/rstb.2017.0301",
                 issn = "1552-2814",
             language = "en",
           targetfile = "betts_successful.pdf",
        urlaccessdate = "01 dez. 2020"
}


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