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@Article{LapolaPQSRKBOPMVN:2018:LiHiIm,
               author = "Lapola, David M. and Pinho, Patricia and Quesada, Carlos A. and 
                         Strassburg, Bernardo B. N. and Rammig, Anja and Kruijt, Bart and 
                         Brown, Foster and Ometto, Jean Pierre Henry Balbaud and Premebida, 
                         Adriano and Marengo, Jos{\'e} A. and Vergara, Walter and Nobre, 
                         Carlos Afonso",
          affiliation = "{Universidade Estadual de Campinas (UNICAMP)} and {Stockholm 
                         University} and {Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas da Amaz{\^o}nia 
                         (INPA)} and {International Institute for Sustainability} and 
                         {Technical University of Munich} and {Wageningen University} and 
                         {Universidade Federal do Acre (UFAC)} and {Instituto Nacional de 
                         Pesquisas Espaciais (INPE)} and {Universidade Federal do Rio 
                         Grande do Sul (UFRGS)} and {Centro Nacional de Monitoramento e 
                         Alertas de Desastres Naturais (CEMADEN)} and {World Resources 
                         Institute} and {National Institute of Science and Technology for 
                         Climate Change}",
                title = "Limiting the high impacts of Amazon forest dieback with no-regrets 
                         science and policy action",
              journal = "Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United 
                         States of America",
                 year = "2018",
               volume = "115",
               number = "46",
                pages = "11671--11679",
                month = "Nov.",
             keywords = "ecosystem services, agriculture, hydroelectricity generation, 
                         migration, adaptation.",
             abstract = "Large uncertainties still dominate the hypothesis of an abrupt 
                         large-scale shift of the Amazon forest caused by climate change 
                         [Amazonian forest dieback (AFD)] even though observational 
                         evidence shows the forest and regional climate changing. Here, we 
                         assess whether mitigation or adaptation action should be taken 
                         now, later, or not at all in light of such uncertainties. No 
                         action/later action would result in major social impacts that may 
                         influence migration to large Amazonian cities through a causal 
                         chain of climate change and forest degradation leading to lower 
                         river-water levels that affect transportation, food security, and 
                         health. Net-present value socioeconomic damage over a 30-year 
                         period after AFD is estimated between US dollar (USD) \$957 
                         billion (109) and \$3,589 billion (compared with Gross Brazilian 
                         Amazon Product of USD \$150 billion per year), arising primarily 
                         from changes in the provision of ecosystem services. Costs of 
                         acting now would be one to two orders of magnitude lower than 
                         economic damages. However, while AFD mitigation alternatives-e.g., 
                         curbing deforestation-are attainable (USD \$64 billion), their 
                         efficacy in achieving a forest resilience that prevents AFD is 
                         uncertain. Concurrently, a proposed set of 20 adaptation measures 
                         is also attainable (USD \$122 billion) and could bring benefits 
                         even if AFD never occurs. An interdisciplinary research agenda to 
                         fill lingering knowledge gaps and constrain the risk of AFD should 
                         focus on developing sound experimental and modeling evidence 
                         regarding its likelihood, integrated with socioeconomic 
                         assessments to anticipate its impacts and evaluate the feasibility 
                         and efficacy of mitigation/adaptation options.",
                  doi = "10.1073/pnas.1721770115",
                  url = "http://dx.doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1721770115",
                 issn = "0027-8424",
             language = "en",
           targetfile = "lapola_limiting.pdf",
        urlaccessdate = "30 nov. 2020"
}


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