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@InProceedings{CavalcantiSilvChou:2018:SoAmMo,
               author = "Cavalcanti, Iracema F. A. and Silveira, Virginia Piccinini and 
                         Chou, Sin Chan",
          affiliation = "{} and {Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais (INPE)} and 
                         {Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais (INPE)}",
                title = "South America monsoon system and features simulated by the Eta 
                         regional model",
                 year = "2018",
         organization = "AGU Fall Meeting",
             abstract = "The South America Monsoon System (SAMS) is the main driver of the 
                         rainy season in large areas of South America. Its variability 
                         affects several regions where droughts or floods have impacts in 
                         sectors like agriculture, hydropower and the economy. Therefore, 
                         prediction of extremes in SAMS is a highly important task. To 
                         increase the confidence in model predictions, it is necessary to 
                         verify, first, how is the model climate variability behavior. In 
                         this study, climate simulations of Eta regional model are used to 
                         analyze its ability of reproducing features of SAMS and extremes 
                         in Southeastern Brazil. The Eta model was integrated at resolution 
                         of 20 km and with lateral boundary conditions of HadGEM2-ES. The 
                         analyses are performed in two periods, first: 1981-2005 and 
                         second: 2016-2040. RCP 8.5 is the scenario of the projections. The 
                         main mode of precipitation variability in the summer, obtained 
                         from EOF1, is similar to the observations, showing the South 
                         Atlantic Convergence Zone (SACZ) feature and opposite sign to the 
                         south and to northwest. The general configuration of the 
                         difference between summer and winter, which shows the monsoon 
                         areas, is also similar to the observations, with underestimation 
                         in regions of Paraguay and northern Argentina. The wet and dry 
                         extremes during summer show the dominant mode of variability 
                         pattern, as in the observations. The projections show drier 
                         conditions in the second period compared to the first one, in 
                         large areas of Brazil, in all seasons, except in the winter (JJA). 
                         The reduction of precipitation is great in the summer (DJF) and 
                         spring (SON), mainly in central and southeast Brazil, likely 
                         related to the SACZ changes. Precipitation changes are discussed 
                         based on atmospheric circulation and humidity fluxes of both 
                         periods.",
  conference-location = "Washington, D. C.",
      conference-year = "10-14 dec.",
             language = "en",
        urlaccessdate = "01 dez. 2020"
}


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