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@Article{RezendeCarrRodrNeve:2018:DeFuSc,
               author = "Rezende, Fernanda Silva de and Carriello, Felix and Rodriguez, 
                         Daniel Andr{\'e}s and Neves, Otto Marques dos Santos",
          affiliation = "{Universidade Federal Fluminense (UFF)} and {Universidade Federal 
                         Fluminense (UFF)} and {Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais 
                         (INPE)} and {Universidade Federal Fluminense (UFF)}",
                title = "Spatial and temporal changes in the land use and cover of the 
                         Para{\'{\i}}ba Valley in S{\~a}o Paulo, Brazil: development of 
                         future scenarios",
              journal = "Revista Brasileira de Geografia F{\'{\i}}sica",
                 year = "2018",
               volume = "11",
               number = "5",
                pages = "1732--1747",
             keywords = "Forestry, Silviculture, Dynamic Spatial Modeling, Atlantic Forest, 
                         Silvicultura, Modelagem Espacial Din{\^a}mica, Mata 
                         Atl{\^a}ntica.",
             abstract = "The Para{\'{\i}}ba Valley in S{\~a}o Paulo, Brazil, is marked 
                         by great transformations. The Brazilian economic cycles changed 
                         this region and transformed it into a great mosaic of pastures, 
                         forest fragments, and urban areas. Temporal studies on land use 
                         and cover have given information on these changes and evaluated 
                         their impacts. The conversion of extensive areas of the Atlantic 
                         Forest into eucalyptus crops is noticeable; this monoculture 
                         developed greatly and is expanding steadily in this valley. This 
                         land-use conversion has consequences, such as forest 
                         fragmentation, and losses in biodiversity, and water and soil 
                         quality. Developing future scenarios (2010 to 2050) that simulate 
                         changes in land use and cover is essential for an efficient and 
                         sustainable public management. Thus, the objective of the present 
                         study was to develop future scenarios while considering different 
                         social, economic, and environmental issues, based on analyses of 
                         the dynamics of forestry expansion in the Para{\'{\i}}ba Valley 
                         in S{\~a}o Paulo, Brazil. The scenarios developed were classified 
                         as Trend, maintaining the same change patterns of the observed 
                         period (2000 to 2005); Optimistic, decreasing conversion rates of 
                         natural vegetation into forestry and pasture areas; and Pessimist, 
                         increasing deforestation rates and increasing eucalyptus and 
                         pasture areas. Future scenarios for the period of 2010 to 2050 
                         were developed in the Dinamica Ego software, and it proved to be 
                         effective, presenting trends and predispositions of changes in 
                         land use. These results can be used for environmental planning 
                         focused on sustainability, better management of natural resources, 
                         and development of economic activities. RESUMO: O Vale do 
                         Para{\'{\i}}ba paulista {\'e} marcado por grandes 
                         transforma{\c{c}}{\~o}es vinculadas aos ciclos econ{\^o}micos 
                         brasileiros que mudaram a regi{\~a}o transformando-a em um grande 
                         mosaico de pastos, fragmentos florestais e {\'a}rea urbana. 
                         Estudos temporais de uso e cobertura permitem observar essas 
                         mudan{\c{c}}as e avaliar os impactos gerados por elas. {\'E} 
                         not{\'o}ria a substitui{\c{c}}{\~a}o de extensas {\'a}reas de 
                         Mata Atl{\^a}ntica para o monocultivo de eucaliptos que possui 
                         alto desenvolvimento e constante expans{\~a}o no Vale. Tal 
                         convers{\~a}o de uso traz consequ{\^e}ncias como a 
                         fragmenta{\c{c}}{\~a}o florestal, perda de biodiversidade, da 
                         qualidade das {\'a}guas e do solo. A possibilidade de desenvolver 
                         cen{\'a}rios de simula{\c{c}}{\~a}o de mudan{\c{c}}as de uso e 
                         cobertura da terra {\'e} fundamental para uma gest{\~a}o 
                         p{\'u}blica eficiente e sustent{\'a}vel. Visando essas 
                         quest{\~o}es o presente estudo busca projetar cen{\'a}rios 
                         futuros levando em considera{\c{c}}{\~a}o diferentes 
                         quest{\~o}es sociais, econ{\^o}micas e ambientais, a partir de 
                         an{\'a}lises sobre a din{\^a}mica de expans{\~a}o da 
                         silvicultura no Vale do Para{\'{\i}}ba paulista. Os 
                         cen{\'a}rios criados podem ser classificados como Tendencial que 
                         mant{\'e}m os mesmos padr{\~o}es de mudan{\c{c}}as do 
                         per{\'{\i}}odo observado (2000-2005); Otimista que diminui as 
                         taxas de convers{\~a}o para silvicultura e pastagem, aumentando 
                         as {\'a}reas vegetadas; e Pessimista que alavanca as taxas de 
                         desmatamento a partir do crescimento dos cultivos de eucaliptos e 
                         pastagem. O desenvolvimento de cen{\'a}rios futuros de 2010 a 
                         2050 no DinamicaEgo se mostrou eficaz, apresentando 
                         tend{\^e}ncias e pr{\'e}-disposi{\c{c}}{\~o}es de 
                         transi{\c{c}}{\~o}es de uso do solo sendo poss{\'{\i}}vel a 
                         utiliza{\c{c}}{\~a}o dos resultados no planejamento ambiental 
                         visando {\`a} sustentabilidade e melhor gest{\~a}o dos recursos 
                         naturais e desenvolvimento de atividades econ{\^o}micas.",
                 issn = "1984-2295",
             language = "en",
           targetfile = "rezende_spatial.pdf",
        urlaccessdate = "25 nov. 2020"
}


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