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@Article{MaksicShOlVeCaFe:2019:SiHoCl,
               author = "Maksic, Jelena and Shimizu, Marilia Harumi and Oliveira, Gilvan 
                         Sampaio de and Ven{\^a}ncio, Igor Martins and Cardoso, Manoel 
                         Ferreira and Ferreira, Felipe Alexandre",
          affiliation = "{Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais (INPE)} and {Instituto 
                         Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais (INPE)} and {Instituto Nacional de 
                         Pesquisas Espaciais (INPE)} and {Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas 
                         Espaciais (INPE)} and {Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais 
                         (INPE)} and {Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais (INPE)}",
                title = "Simulation of the Holocene climate over South America and impacts 
                         on the vegetation",
              journal = "The Holocene",
                 year = "2019",
               volume = "29",
               number = "2",
                pages = "287--299",
             keywords = "caatinga, climate change, ITCZ, monsoon, paleovegetation, 
                         potential vegetation, rainforest, savannah.",
             abstract = "We provide a comprehensive analysis of the Holocene climate and 
                         vegetation changes over South America through numerical 
                         simulations. Holocene climate for several periods (8 ka, 6 ka, 4 
                         ka, 2 ka, and present) were simulated by an atmospheric general 
                         circulation model, forced with orbital parameters, CO2 
                         concentrations, and sea surface temperature (SST), while the 
                         analysis of the biome distributions was made with a potential 
                         vegetation model (PVM). Compared with the present climate, our 
                         four simulated periods of the Holocene were characterized by 
                         reduced South Atlantic Convergence Zone intensity and weaker South 
                         American Monsoon System (SAMS). The model simulated conditions 
                         drier than present over most of South America and gradual 
                         strengthening of SAMS toward the present. The Northeast Brazil was 
                         wetter because of southward migration of the intertropical 
                         convergence zone (ITCZ). Moreover, SST conditions were the main 
                         forcing for the climate changes during the mid Holocene inducing 
                         larger austral summer southward ITCZ migration. PVM 
                         paleovegetation projections are shown to be consistent with 
                         paleodata proxies which suggest fluctuations between biomes, 
                         despite the fact that ages of dry/wet indicators are not 
                         synchronous over large areas of the Amazonian ecosystem. Holocene 
                         PVM simulations show distinct retreat in Amazonian forest biome in 
                         all four simulated periods. In 6 ka, present caatinga vegetation 
                         in Northeastern Brazil was replaced with savanna or dense 
                         shrubland. The simulations also suggest the existence of 
                         rainforest in western Amazonia and the expansion of savanna and 
                         seasonal forest in the eastern Amazon, with shifts in plant 
                         community compositions and fragmentation located mostly in ecotone 
                         regions. Moreover, our PVM results show that during the Holocene, 
                         the Amazonian tropical forest was smaller in area than today, 
                         although western Amazonia persisted as a tropical forest 
                         throughout the Holocene.",
                  doi = "10.1177/0959683618810406",
                  url = "http://dx.doi.org/10.1177/0959683618810406",
                 issn = "0959-6836",
             language = "en",
           targetfile = "maksic_simulation.pdf",
        urlaccessdate = "26 nov. 2020"
}


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