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@Article{CaliboniTaIgFaMeUr:2018:HiPaPo,
               author = "Caliboni, Adriane and Tambosi, Leandro R. and Igari, Alexandre T. 
                         and Farinaci, Juliana Sampaio and Metzger, Jean Paulo and Uriarte, 
                         Maria",
          affiliation = "{Universidade de S{\~a}o Paulo (USP)} and {Universidade Federal 
                         do ABC (UFABC)} and {Universidade de S{\~a}o Paulo (USP)} and 
                         {Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais (INPE)} and 
                         {Universidade de S{\~a}o Paulo (USP)} and {Columbia University}",
                title = "The forest transition in S{\~a}o Paulo, Brazil: historical 
                         patterns and potential drivers",
              journal = "Ecology and Society",
                 year = "2018",
               volume = "23",
               number = "4",
             keywords = "agriculture modernization, forest cover change, land-use change, 
                         S{\~a}o Paulo.",
             abstract = "Agricultural expansion has caused extensive deforestation 
                         throughout the tropics in the last decades, nevertheless, some 
                         countries have experienced native forest gains. In the 20th 
                         century, the state of S{\~a}o Paulo, Brazil, transitioned from an 
                         agricultural frontier to an agro-industrial state, and in 
                         parallel, from a high deforestation rate to a net gain in native 
                         forest. Here we examine the biophysical and socioeconomic factors 
                         that best explain land use and forest cover change in the state, 
                         at the municipality scale, over four consecutive intervals between 
                         1960 and 2006. We hypothesized that factors that increase the 
                         productivity of agricultural land or reduce pressure on land 
                         development would lead to regeneration. Although results differed 
                         among intervals, our analyses demonstrate that forest gains were 
                         greater in municipalities with high forest cover percentage and 
                         steep slopes, and in areas that employed a large number of workers 
                         and relied on intensive fertilizer inputs. At the same time, 
                         forest loss was higher in municipalities with a large portion of 
                         agricultural land and soils with higher water retention capacity. 
                         These results reveal that land-use expansion led to forest loss in 
                         areas more suitable for agriculture, while forest gains occurred 
                         mainly in less suitable areas. Over time, agricultural expansion 
                         leveled off and agriculture intensification enabled forest gains, 
                         which were most marked in areas with a high percentage of forest 
                         remnants. Ultimately, however, these proximate drivers of forest 
                         change were driven by governmental policies to modernize 
                         agriculture and to protect natural ecosystems.",
                  doi = "10.5751/ES-10270-230407",
                  url = "http://dx.doi.org/10.5751/ES-10270-230407",
                 issn = "1708-3087",
             language = "en",
           targetfile = "calaboni_forest.pdf",
        urlaccessdate = "27 nov. 2020"
}


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