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@Article{Müller-HansenHDCDAKT:2019:CaInCa,
               author = "M{\"u}ller-Hansen, Finn and Heitzig, Jobst and Donges, Jonathan 
                         F. and Cardoso, Manoel Ferreira and Dalla Nora, Eloi Lennon and 
                         Andrade Neto, Pedro Ribeiro de and Kurths, J{\"u}rgen and 
                         Thonicke, Kirsten",
          affiliation = "{Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK)} and {Potsdam 
                         Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK)} and {Potsdam 
                         Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK)} and {Instituto 
                         Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais (INPE)} and {Instituto Nacional de 
                         Pesquisas Espaciais (INPE)} and {Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas 
                         Espaciais (INPE)} and {Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact 
                         Research (PIK)} and {Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research 
                         (PIK)}",
                title = "Can intensification of cattle ranching reduce deforestation in the 
                         Amazon? insights from an agent-based social-ecological model",
              journal = "Ecological Economics",
                 year = "2019",
               volume = "159",
                pages = "198--211",
                month = "May",
             keywords = "Amazon deforestation, Land-use intensification, Pasture 
                         management, Social-ecological systems, Agent-based modeling.",
             abstract = "Deforestation in the Amazon with its vast consequences for the 
                         ecosystem and climate is largely related to subsequent land use 
                         for cattle ranching. In addition to conservation policies, 
                         proposals to reduce deforestation include measures to intensify 
                         cattle ranching. However, the effects of land-use intensification 
                         on deforestation are debated in the literature. This paper 
                         introduces the abacra model, a stylized agent-based model to study 
                         the interplay of deforestation and the intensification of cattle 
                         ranching in the Brazilian Amazon. The model combines social 
                         learning and ecological processes with market dynamics. In the 
                         model, agents adopt either an extensive or semi-intensive strategy 
                         of cattle ranching based on the success of their neighbors. They 
                         earn their income by selling cattle on a stylized market. We 
                         present a comprehensive analysis of the model with statistical 
                         methods and find that it produces highly non-linear transient 
                         outcomes in dependence on key parameters like the rate of social 
                         interaction and elasticity of the cattle price. We show that under 
                         many environmental and economic conditions, intensification does 
                         not reduce deforestation rates and sometimes even has a 
                         detrimental effect on deforestation. Anti-deforestation policies 
                         incentivizing fast intensification can only lower deforestation 
                         rates under conditions in which the local cattle market 
                         saturates.",
                  doi = "10.1016/j.ecolecon.2018.12.025",
                  url = "http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolecon.2018.12.025",
                 issn = "0921-8009",
             language = "en",
           targetfile = "muller_can.pdf",
        urlaccessdate = "25 nov. 2020"
}


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