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@InProceedings{GeirinhasTLSCRCPM:2019:MoInLe,
               author = "Geirinhas, Jo{\~a}o L. and Trigo, Ricardo M. and Libonati, Renata 
                         and Sousa, Pedro M. and Castro, Lucas C. O. and Russo, Ana and 
                         Coelho, Caio Augusto dos Santos and Peres, Leonardo F. and 
                         Magalh{\~a}es, M{\^o}nica de Avelar F. M.",
          affiliation = "{Instituto Dom Luiz} and {Instituto Dom Luiz} and {Universidade 
                         Federal do Rio de Janeiro (UFRJ)} and {Instituto Dom Luiz} and 
                         {Universidade Federal do Rio de Janeiro (UFRJ)} and {Instituto Dom 
                         Luiz} and {Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais (INPE)} and 
                         {Universidade Federal do Rio de Janeiro (UFRJ)} and 
                         {Funda{\c{c}}{\~a}o Oswaldo Cruz}",
                title = "Mortality Incidence levels associated with extremely high 
                         temperatures for the Metropolitan Region of Rio de Janeiro, 
                         Brazil",
                 year = "2019",
         organization = "EGU General Assembly",
             abstract = "Temperature record-breaking events, such as heat waves (HWs), pose 
                         a significant challenge to the health sector. Considering the 
                         observed and expected increments of mean and extreme temperature 
                         levels, under different climate scenarios, HWs are expected to 
                         increase in frequency, duration and intensity during the next 
                         decades and throughout most regions of the World (Fischer and 
                         Knutti, 2015). The HWs impacts are more effective over high 
                         densely populated urban centers, where the joined contribution of 
                         the urban heat island effect and the worsened air pollution levels 
                         induce an excessive mortality incidence. According to the United 
                         Nations, half of the Worlds population is currently living in 
                         these urban settlements, and demographic projections indicate that 
                         in 2050 this number will increase to circa two-thirds. Considering 
                         such pronounced demographic trends, strategies accounting for the 
                         occurrence of HWs are urgently needed in order to mitigate the 
                         associated potential health impacts. This is particularly relevant 
                         in regions like South America and Brazil, where there is still a 
                         lack of studies analyzing the relationship of natural mortality 
                         concerning extreme heat events and where many people with low 
                         social-economic conditions live within metropolitan regions of 
                         mega-cities. Here we outline the statistical relationship between 
                         temperature extremes and daily mortality levels for a Brazilian 
                         highly populated urban area, the Metropolitan Region of Rio de 
                         Janeiro (MRRJ), from 2000 to 2015. The analysis was conducted for 
                         several age groups and considering general cause-specific 
                         mortality cases. Our results show that mortality tends to increase 
                         significantly during prolonged extreme hot periods, in particular, 
                         when preceded by a cooler period. Deaths caused by respiratory 
                         diseases were identified as showing the most prevailing increment 
                         during extreme heat stress conditions. A special emphasis was paid 
                         to a particular HW event (from 2 to 9 Feb 2010) associated with 
                         the highest mortality peak recorded throughout all the 16-year 
                         mortality considered. This episode was responsible for a total 
                         excess of 737 deaths within the MRRJ, with the elderlies being the 
                         most vulnerable age group. Through the analysis of ERA-Interim 
                         reanalysis anomaly composites, a detailed characterization of the 
                         atmospheric circulation mechanisms responsible for this episode 
                         was performed (Geirinhas et al., 2019). The contribution during 
                         the preceding weeks, of an anomalous dry accumulated surface 
                         scenario for the HW amplification through land-atmosphere 
                         feedbacks was also observed and discussed. The obtained results 
                         represent a serious warning and should be used by authorities as a 
                         guideline to predict and minimize the future impacts of climate 
                         change, allowing society to timely adapt to a range of different 
                         climate scenarios.",
  conference-location = "Vienna, Austria",
      conference-year = "07-12 apr.",
             language = "en",
           targetfile = "geirinhas_mortality.pdf",
        urlaccessdate = "24 nov. 2020"
}


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