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@PhDThesis{DiasdaSilva:2019:ImReAm,
               author = "Dias da Silva, Philipp Edson",
                title = "Impact of the removal of Amazon Forest on the Southern Hemisphere 
                         storm tracks in future climate",
               school = "Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais (INPE)",
                 year = "2019",
              address = "S{\~a}o Jos{\'e} dos Campos",
                month = "2019-05-29",
             keywords = "storm track, land use change, HadGEM2-ES, climate change, 
                         projections, mudan{\c{c}}as de uso da terra, mudan{\c{c}}as 
                         clim{\'a}ticas, proje{\c{c}}{\~o}es.",
             abstract = "The Amazon Forest is one of the most important ecosystems in the 
                         world. The forest plays an important role in the global 
                         hydrological system. Deforestation affects evapotranspiration, 
                         latent heat, river discharges and, consequently, the global 
                         climate. In this study, HadGEM2-ES Earth system model is used to 
                         investigate the impact of the removal of the Amazon Forest on the 
                         storm tracks (STs) of the (HS) in future climate. Firstly, the 
                         recent past climate simulated by HadGEM2-ES is compared to that 
                         indicated by the Era-Interim reanalysis to evaluate the 
                         performance of the model in representing the STs in the HS. Next, 
                         experiments with and without the Amazon Forest under two future 
                         scenarios Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) are 
                         contrasted against controlled experiments to examine possible 
                         future changes in STs. The HadGEM2-ES has the ability to simulate 
                         well the midlatitude storm tracks in the Southern Hemisphere (SH). 
                         However, the model tends to represent the austral winter ST 
                         position with an equatorward bias and a zonal bias in the spiral 
                         towards the pole. The main differences are found during the 
                         austral winter and spring, with large track density biases over 
                         the Indian Ocean indicating a poor representation of the ST in 
                         this specific region. This seems to be related to two factors. 
                         First, the large negative genesis biases over South America, 
                         Antarctic Peninsula and the Antarctic coast. Second, the model 
                         resolution and the representation of the Andes Mountains in South 
                         America. The model generally underestimates the extratropical 
                         cyclone intensity, which in part is related to low spatial 
                         resolution. The future projections show a consistent shift of the 
                         STs in the HS toward the pole, and this is reduced when the Amazon 
                         Forest is removed. The storm track changes under the RCP4.5 are 
                         larger than in the RCP8.5 scenario. In general, the changes are 
                         strongly associated with the mean large-scale circulation, 
                         although the change in the Amazon Forest is on a regional-scale. 
                         When the Amazon Forest is removed, the temperature decreases over 
                         northern South America. There is also a decrease in the total 
                         number of cyclones in the SH and a slight shift of cyclone 
                         intensity distributions toward stronger storms. RESUMO: A Floresta 
                         Amaz{\^o}nica {\'e} um dos ecossistemas mais importantes do 
                         mundo. A floresta desempenha um papel importante no sistema 
                         hidrol{\'o}gico global. O desmatamento afeta a 
                         evapotranspira{\c{c}}{\~a}o, o calor latente, as descargas dos 
                         rios e, consequentemente, o clima global. Neste estudo, o modelo 
                         do sistema terrestre HadGEM2-ES {\'e} utilizado para investigar o 
                         impacto da remo{\c{c}}{\~a}o da Floresta Amaz{\^o}nica nas 
                         storm tracks (STs) do (HS) no clima futuro. Primeiramente, o clima 
                         passado recente simulado pelo HadGEM2-ES {\'e} comparado ao 
                         indicado pela rean{\'a}lise Era-Interim para avaliar o desempenho 
                         do modelo em representar as STs no HS. Em seguida, experimentos 
                         com e sem a Floresta Amaz{\^o}nica, sob dois cen{\'a}rios 
                         futuros Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP), s{\~a}o 
                         contrastados com experimentos controlados para examinar 
                         poss{\'{\i}}veis mudan{\c{c}}as futuras nas STs. O HadGEM2-ES 
                         tem a capacidade de simular bem as STs nas latitudes m{\'e}dias 
                         no Hemisf{\'e}rio Sul. No entanto, o modelo tende a representar a 
                         posi{\c{c}}{\~a}o dos ciclones durante o inverno austral com um 
                         vi{\'e}s para o equador e apresenta um vi{\'e}s zonal na espiral 
                         em dire{\c{c}}{\~a}o ao p{\'o}lo. As principais 
                         diferen{\c{c}}as foram encontradas durante o inverno e a 
                         primavera austral, com grandes vieses de densidade de 
                         trajet{\'o}rias sobre o Oceano {\'{\I}}ndico, indicando uma 
                         representa{\c{c}}{\~a}o pobre das STs nessa regi{\~a}o 
                         espec{\'{\i}}fica. Isso parece estar relacionado a dois fatores. 
                         Primeiro, o grande vi{\'e}s negativo na g{\^e}nese sobre a 
                         Am{\'e}rica do Sul, a Pen{\'{\i}}nsula Ant{\'a}rtica e a costa 
                         da Ant{\'a}rtica. Em segundo lugar, a resolu{\c{c}}{\~a}o do 
                         modelo e a representa{\c{c}}{\~a}o da Cordilheira dos Andes na 
                         Am{\'e}rica do Sul. O modelo geralmente subestima a intensidade 
                         dos ciclones extratropicais, o que em parte est{\'a} relacionado 
                         {\`a} baixa resolu{\c{c}}{\~a}o espacial. As 
                         proje{\c{c}}{\~o}es futuras mostram um desvio consistente das 
                         STs do HS em dire{\c{c}}{\~a}o ao polo, e isso {\'e} reduzido 
                         quando a Floresta Amaz{\^o}nica {\'e} removida. As 
                         mudan{\c{c}}as nas STs sob o cen{\'a}rio RCP4.5 s{\~a}o maiores 
                         do que as do RCP8.5. Em geral, as mudan{\c{c}}as est{\~a}o 
                         fortemente associadas {\`a} circula{\c{c}}{\~a}o m{\'e}dia em 
                         grande escala, embora a mudan{\c{c}}a na Floresta Amaz{\^o}nica 
                         esteja em escala regional. Quando a Floresta Amaz{\^o}nica {\'e} 
                         removida, a temperatura diminui no norte da Am{\'e}rica do Sul. 
                         Ocorre, tamb{\'e}m, uma diminui{\c{c}}{\~a}o no n{\'u}mero 
                         total de ciclones no HS e um leve deslocamento das 
                         distribui{\c{c}}{\~o}es de intensidade de ciclones em 
                         dire{\c{c}}{\~a}o a tempestades mais fortes.",
            committee = "von Randow, Celso (presidente) and Coutinho, Mariane Mendes 
                         (orientadora) and Hodges, Kevin Ivan (orientador) and Ferreira, 
                         Nelson Jesuz and Torres, Roger Rodrigues and Vasconcellos, 
                         Fernanda Cerqueira",
         englishtitle = "Impacto da remo{\c{c}}{\~a}o da Floresta Amaz{\^o}nica nas 
                         storm tracks do Hemisf{\'e}rio Sul no clima futuro",
             language = "en",
                pages = "241",
                  ibi = "8JMKD3MGP3W34R/3TAJ4MB",
                  url = "http://urlib.net/rep/8JMKD3MGP3W34R/3TAJ4MB",
           targetfile = "publicacao.pdf",
        urlaccessdate = "28 nov. 2020"
}


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