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@Article{FonsecaAAAARSA:2019:EfClLa,
               author = "Fonseca, Marisa Gesteira and Alves, Lincoln Muniz and Aguiar, Ana 
                         Paula Dutra and Arai, Egidio and Anderson, Liana Oighenstein and 
                         Rosan, Thais Michele and Shimabukuro, Yosio Edemir and 
                         Arag{\~a}o, Luiz Eduardo Oliveira e Cruz de",
          affiliation = "{Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais (INPE)} and {Instituto 
                         Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais (INPE)} and {Instituto Nacional de 
                         Pesquisas Espaciais (INPE)} and {Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas 
                         Espaciais (INPE)} and {Centro Nacional de Monitoramento e Alertas 
                         de Desastres Naturais (CEMADEN)} and {Instituto Nacional de 
                         Pesquisas Espaciais (INPE)} and {Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas 
                         Espaciais (INPE)} and {Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais 
                         (INPE)}",
                title = "Effects of climate and land\‐use change scenarios on fire 
                         probability during the 21st century in the Brazilian Amazon",
              journal = "Global Change Biology",
                 year = "2019",
               volume = "25",
               number = "9",
                pages = "2931--2946",
                month = "Sept.",
             keywords = "fire modeling, forest degradation, hot pixels, maximum entropy, 
                         representative concentration pathway, tropical forest.",
             abstract = "The joint and relative effects of future land-use and climate 
                         change on fire occurrence in the Amazon, as well its seasonal 
                         variation, are still poorly understood, despite its recognized 
                         importance. Using the maximum entropy method (MaxEnt), we combined 
                         regional land-use projections and climatic data from the CMIP5 
                         multimodel ensemble to investigate the monthly probability of fire 
                         occurrence in the mid (2041-2070) and late (2071-2100) 21st 
                         century in the Brazilian Amazon. We found striking spatial 
                         variation in the fire relative probability (FRP) change along the 
                         months, with October showing the highest overall change. 
                         Considering climate only, the area with FRP >= 0.3 (a threshold 
                         chosen based on the literature) in October increases 6.9% by 
                         2071-2100 compared to the baseline period under the representative 
                         concentration pathway (RCP) 4.5 and 27.7% under the RCP 8.5. The 
                         best-case land-use scenario ({"}Sustainability{"}) alone causes a 
                         10.6% increase in the area with FRP >= 0.3, while the worse-case 
                         land-use scenario ({"}Fragmentation{"}) causes a 73.2% increase. 
                         The optimistic climate-land-use projection (Sustainability and RCP 
                         4.5) causes a 21.3% increase in the area with FRP >= 0.3 in 
                         October by 2071-2100 compared to the baseline period. In contrast, 
                         the most pessimistic climate-land-use projection (Fragmentation 
                         and RCP 8.5) causes a widespread increase in FRP (113.5% increase 
                         in the area with FRP >= 0.3), and prolongs the fire season, 
                         displacing its peak. Combining the Sustainability land-use and RCP 
                         8.5 scenarios causes a 39.1% increase in the area with FRP >= 0.3. 
                         We conclude that avoiding the regress on land-use governance in 
                         the Brazilian Amazon (i.e., decrease in the extension and level of 
                         conservation of the protected areas, reduced environmental laws 
                         enforcement, extensive road paving, and increased deforestation) 
                         would substantially mitigate the effects of climate change on fire 
                         probability, even under the most pessimistic RCP 8.5 scenario.",
                  doi = "10.1111/gcb.14709",
                  url = "http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/gcb.14709",
                 issn = "1354-1013",
             language = "en",
           targetfile = "Fonseca_et_al-2019-Global_Change_Biology.pdf",
        urlaccessdate = "23 jan. 2021"
}


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