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@Article{GutiérrezHPDLMBSWM:2019:ClChPo,
               author = "Guti{\'e}rrez, Eli{\'e}cer E. and Herming, Neander M. Heming and 
                         Penido, Gabriel and Dalponte, Julio C. and Lacerda, Ana Cristyna 
                         Reis and Moratelli, Ricardo and Bubadu{\'e}a, Jamile de Moura and 
                         Silva, Leonardo Henrique da and Wolf, Mariana Marques and 
                         Marinho-Filho, Jader",
          affiliation = "{Universidade Federal de Santa Maria (UFSM)} and {Universidade de 
                         Bras{\'{\i}}lia (UnB)} and {Universidade de Bras{\'{\i}}lia 
                         (UnB)} and {Universidade Federal de Mato Grosso (UFMT)} and 
                         {Universidade de Bras{\'{\i}}lia (UnB)} and {Fiocruz Mata 
                         Atl{\^a}ntica} and {Universidade Federal de Santa Maria (UFSM)} 
                         and {Universidade Estadual Paulista (UNESP)} and {Instituto 
                         Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais (INPE)} and {Universidade de 
                         Bras{\'{\i}}lia (UnB)}",
                title = "Climate change and its potential impact on the conservation of the 
                         Hoary Fox, Lycalopex vetulus (Mammalia: Canidae)",
              journal = "Mammalian Biology",
                 year = "2019",
               volume = "98",
                pages = "91--101",
                month = "Sept.",
             keywords = "Brazil, Carnivora, Cerrado, Climatic suitability, Distribution.",
             abstract = "We aimed to assess the potential impact of climate change on the 
                         geographic distribution of areas holding suitable climatic 
                         conditions for the presence of Lycalopex vetulus, and to discuss 
                         the implications of such distribution for the conservation of the 
                         species. We employed correlative modeling analyses to infer the 
                         geographic distribution of climatically suitable conditions for 
                         the species on climatic scenarios for the present and for years 
                         2050 (average for 20412060) and 2070 (average for 20612080). The 
                         data consisted of species occurrences and 5 bioclimatic variables 
                         containing interpolated and averaged information on seasonal 
                         variation of temperature and precipitation. Models were projected 
                         onto climatic scenarios employing three different global 
                         circulation models and two representative concentration pathways. 
                         For each of these scenarios, we quantified the expected changes in 
                         area (km2) holding suitable climatic conditions and how much of 
                         that area is expected to be within the current Brazilian system of 
                         protected areas. Our results reveal that climate change represents 
                         a major threat for the survival of L. vetulus by drastically 
                         reducing its habitat availability in a period of time no longer 
                         than five decades from now. Experimental physiological and 
                         behavioral studies are necessary to assess whether L. vetulus is 
                         able to adequately tolerate under climatic conditions different to 
                         those under which the species is currently present.",
                  doi = "10.1016/j.mambio.2019.08.002",
                  url = "http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.mambio.2019.08.002",
                 issn = "1616-5047",
             language = "en",
           targetfile = "gutierrez_climate.pdf",
        urlaccessdate = "13 abr. 2021"
}


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