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@InProceedings{SilvaRSNPPOPL:2020:RoClAn,
               author = "Silva, Patr{\'{\i}}cia S. and Rodrigues, Julia A. and Santos, 
                         Filippe L. M. and Nogueira, Joana Messias Pereira and Pereira, 
                         Allan A. and Peres, Leonardo F. and Oom, Duarte and Pereira, 
                         Jos{\'e} M. C. and Libonati, Renata",
          affiliation = "{Universidade de Lisboa} and {Universidade Federal do Rio de 
                         Janeiro (UFRJ)} and {Universidade Federal do Rio de Janeiro 
                         (UFRJ)} and {Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais (INPE)} and 
                         {Instituto Federal de Ci{\^e}ncia e Tecnologia do Sul de Minas 
                         Gerais (IFSULMINAS)} and {Universidade Federal do Rio de Janeiro 
                         (UFRJ)} and {Joint Research Centre (JRC)} and {Universidade de 
                         Lisboa} and {Universidade de Lisboa}",
                title = "Burned area trends in the Brazilian Cerrado: the roles of climate 
                         and anthropogenic drivers",
                 year = "2020",
         organization = "EGU General Assembly",
             abstract = "Fire is a natural disturbance in the Brazilian savannas, Cerrado, 
                         with substantial ecological and economic impacts. Most studies 
                         have characterized the fire regime in this biome using climate 
                         drivers but neglected the geographical variation of anthropogenic 
                         activities. These factors can trigger inappropriate fire-fighting 
                         decisions and biodiversity conservation policies. This takes 
                         special relevance in fire-prone biomes with recent fire management 
                         policies as Cerrado, which have been highly modified over the last 
                         decades due to changes in land use and climate. Here, we aim to 
                         identify how variations in climate and anthropogenic drivers 
                         influence burned area (BA) trends at the regional level 
                         (microregions) in Cerrado. We evaluated satellite-derived BA 
                         (MCD64, collection 6) for 172 microregions from 2001 to 2018 
                         across the entire biome. The Canadian Forest Fire Weather Index 
                         (FWI) was used as a proxy of climate using meteorological 
                         variables from ECMWFs ERA5 reanalysis product. The human leverage, 
                         considered here as population density (PD) and land use (LU), were 
                         derived, respectively, from the annual census of the Brazillian 
                         Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE) and from a Brazilian 
                         platform of annual land use/cover mapping (MapBiomas). Recent BA 
                         trends considering the drivers FWI, LU and PD, were estimated 
                         using the non-parametric Theil-Sen regression and the modified 
                         Mann-Kendall test. Results showed BA trends over the last 18 years 
                         were significant and spatially contrasted along Cerrado: positive 
                         trends were found in the north-eastern region (in particular, the 
                         most recent agricultural frontier in Brazil: MATOPIBA) whereas the 
                         south-western region showed negative trends. PD showed positive 
                         trends in all microregions and, similarly, LU obtained positive 
                         trends over most of Cerrado. Positive FWI trends were also found 
                         over the central and north-eastern regions and FWI was the driver 
                         that explained most of BA variance in Cerrado. LU and PD were 
                         found to have much more complex relations with BA. Moreover, 
                         regarding the seasonal variability of microregions with positive 
                         and negative trends, the former were found to begin earlier in 
                         June and last longer, indicating that the overall fire season in 
                         Cerrado may be extending. The approach presented here allows the 
                         exploration of recent trends affecting fires, crucial to inform 
                         and support better allocation of resources in fire management 
                         under current and future conditions.",
  conference-location = "Online",
      conference-year = "04-08 may",
           targetfile = "Silva_burnded.pdf",
        urlaccessdate = "26 jan. 2021"
}


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