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@Article{GuimaresCWKBFBS:2020:CoHiQu,
               author = "Guimar{\~a}es, Bruno dos Santos and Coelho, Caio Augusto dos 
                         Santos and Woolnough, Steven J. and Kubota, Paulo Yoshio and 
                         Bastarz, Carlos Frederico and Figueroa, Silvio NIlo and Bonatti, 
                         Jos{\'e} Paulo and Souza, Dayana Castilho de",
          affiliation = "{Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais (INPE)} and {Instituto 
                         Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais (INPE)} and {University of 
                         Reading} and {Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais (INPE)} 
                         and {Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais (INPE)} and {} and 
                         {Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais (INPE)} and {Instituto 
                         Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais (INPE)}",
                title = "Configuration and hindcast quality assessment of a Brazilian 
                         global sub-seasonal prediction system",
              journal = "Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society",
                 year = "2020",
               volume = "146",
               number = "728",
                pages = "1067--1084",
                month = "Apr.",
             keywords = "forecast verification, intraseasonal variability, MJO.",
             abstract = "This article presents the Centre for Weather Forecast and Climate 
                         Studies (CPTEC) developments for configuring a global sub-seasonal 
                         prediction system and assessing its ability in producing 
                         retrospective predictions (hindcasts) for meteorological 
                         conditions of the following 4 weeks. Six Brazilian Global 
                         Atmospheric Model version 1.2 (BAM-1.2) configurations were tested 
                         in terms of vertical resolution, deep convection and 
                         boundary-layer parametrizations, as well as soil moisture 
                         initialization. The aim was to identify the configuration with 
                         best performance when predicting weekly accumulated precipitation, 
                         weekly mean 2 m temperature (T2M) and the Madden-Julian 
                         Oscillation (MJO) daily evolution. Hindcasts assessment was 
                         performed for 12 extended austral summers (November-March, 
                         1999/2000- 2010/2011) with two start dates for each month for the 
                         six configurations and two ensemble approaches. The first 
                         approach, referred to as Multiple Configurations Ensemble (MCEN), 
                         was formed of one ensemble member from each of the six 
                         configurations. The second, referred to as Initial Condition 
                         Ensemble (ICEN), was composed of six ensemble members produced 
                         with the chosen configuration as the best using an empirical 
                         orthogonal function (EOF) perturbation methodology. The chosen 
                         configuration presented high correlation and low root-mean-squared 
                         error (RMSE) for precipitation and T2M anomaly predictions at the 
                         first week and these indices degraded as lead time increased, 
                         maintaining moderate performance up to week-4 over the tropical 
                         Pacific and northern South America. For MJO predictions, this 
                         configuration crossed the 0.5 bivariate correlation threshold in 
                         18 days. The ensemble approaches improved the correlation and RMSE 
                         of precipitation and T2M anomalies. ICEN improved precipitation 
                         and T2M predictions performance over eastern South America at 
                         week-3 and over northern South America at week-4. Improvements 
                         were also noticed for MJO predictions. The time to cross the 
                         above-mentioned threshold increased to 21 days for MCEN and to 20 
                         days for ICEN.",
                  doi = "10.1002/qj.3725",
                  url = "http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/qj.3725",
                 issn = "0035-9009",
             language = "en",
           targetfile = "guimaraes_configuration2.pdf",
        urlaccessdate = "25 jan. 2021"
}


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