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@Article{ChouLGRMRTDPMCOMPS:2020:DoPrCl,
               author = "Chou, Sin Chan and Lyra, Andr{\'e} de Arruda and Gomes, Jorge 
                         Lu{\'{\i}}s and Rodriguez, Daniel Andr{\'e}s and Martins, 
                         Minella Alves and Resende, Nicole Costa and Tavares, Priscila da 
                         Silva and Dereczynski, Claudine Pereira and Pilotto, Isabel Lopes 
                         and Martins, Alessandro Marques and Carvalho, Lu{\'{\i}}s Felipe 
                         Alves de and Onofre, Jos{\'e} Luiz Lima and Major, Idal{\'e}cio 
                         and Penhor, Manuel and Santana, Ad{\'e}rito",
          affiliation = "{Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais (INPE)} and {Instituto 
                         Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais (INPE)} and {Instituto Nacional de 
                         Pesquisas Espaciais (INPE)} and {Universidade Federal do Rio de 
                         Janeiro (UFRJ)} and {Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais 
                         (INPE)} and {Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais (INPE)} and 
                         {Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais (INPE)} and 
                         {Universidade Federal do Rio de Janeiro (UFRJ)} and {Instituto 
                         Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais (INPE)} and {Instituto Nacional de 
                         Pesquisas Espaciais (INPE)} and {} and {National Institute of 
                         Meteorology} and {National Institute of Meteorology} and {National 
                         Institute of Meteorology} and {National Institute of 
                         Meteorology}",
                title = "Downscaling projections of climate change in Sao Tome and Principe 
                         Islands, Africa",
              journal = "Climate Dynamics",
                 year = "2020",
               volume = "54",
               number = "9/10",
                pages = "4021--4042",
                month = "May",
             keywords = "Central Africa  Gulf of Guinea  Small Islands developing states 
                          Downscaling  Eta model  Regional climate mode.",
             abstract = "Sao Tome and Principe is a small insular African country extremely 
                         vulnerable to rising sea levels and impacts such as inundation, 
                         shore line change, and salt water intrusion into underground 
                         aquifers. Projections of climate change have considered coarse 
                         model resolutions. The objective of this work is to dynamically 
                         downscale the global model projections to 4-km resolution and to 
                         assess the climate change in the Sao Tome and Principe islands. 
                         The global climate projections are provided by the Canadian Earth 
                         System Model under two Representative Concentration Pathways 
                         greenhouse gas scenarios, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5. The downscaling is 
                         produced by the Eta regional climate model. The baseline period is 
                         taken between 1971 and 2000, and the future climate period is 
                         taken between 2041 and 2070. The 2-m temperature simulations show 
                         good agreement with station data. The model simulates temperature 
                         more accurately than precipitation. The precipitation simulations 
                         systematically show underestimation and delay of the rainy and the 
                         dry seasons by about 1 month, a feature inherited from the global 
                         climate model. In the middle of the 21st century, projections show 
                         the strongest warming in the elevated parts of the Sao Tome 
                         Island, especially in February under RCP8.5. Warmer nights and 
                         warmer days become more frequent in the islands when compared with 
                         those in the present. While under RCP4.5, precipitation increases 
                         in the islands; under RCP8.5, it decreases everywhere in both 
                         islands. Heavy precipitation rates should increase, especially in 
                         the south-southwestern parts of the Sao Tome islands. Detailed 
                         spatial variability of the temperature and precipitation changes 
                         in the islands can only be revealed at very high spatial model 
                         resolution. Implications for the potential energy production from 
                         two major river basins are assessed in this work.",
                  doi = "10.1007/s00382-020-05212-7",
                  url = "http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s00382-020-05212-7",
                 issn = "0930-7575",
             language = "en",
           targetfile = "chou_downscaling.pdf",
        urlaccessdate = "13 abr. 2021"
}


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