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@Article{ChouDGPARCRSF:2020:TeSeCl,
               author = "Chou, Sin Chan and Dereczynski, Claudine and Gomes, Jorge 
                         Lu{\'{\i}}s and Pesquero, Jos{\'e} Fernando and Avila, Ana 
                         Maria H. de and Resende, Nicole Costa and Carvalho, Lu{\'{\i}}s 
                         Felipe Alves de and Ruiz-C{\'a}rdenas, Ramiro and Souza, Carlos 
                         Renato and Fonseca, Josiane Ferreira Bustamante",
          affiliation = "{Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais (INPE)} and 
                         {Universidade Federal do Rio de Janeiro (UFRJ)} and {Instituto 
                         Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais (INPE)} and {Instituto Nacional de 
                         Pesquisas Espaciais (INPE)} and {Universidade Estadual de Campinas 
                         (UNICAMP)} and {Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais (INPE)} 
                         and {Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais (INPE)} and {} and 
                         {Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais (INPE)} and {Instituto 
                         Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais (INPE)}",
                title = "Ten-year seasonal climate reforecasts over South America using the 
                         Eta Regional Climate Model",
              journal = "Anais da Academia Brasileira de Ci{\^e}ncias",
                 year = "2020",
               volume = "92",
               number = "3",
                pages = "e20181242",
             keywords = ": Seasonal forecasts, Regional Climate Model, Eta model, South 
                         America, forecast skill, added value.",
             abstract = "Ten-year seasonal climate reforecasts over South America are 
                         obtained using the Eta Regional Climate Model at 40 km resolution, 
                         driven by the large-scale forcing from the global atmospheric 
                         model of the Center for Weather Forecasts and Climate Studies. The 
                         objective of this work is to evaluate these regional reforecasts. 
                         The dataset is comprised of four-month seasonal forecasts 
                         performed on a monthly basis between 2001 and 2010. An ensemble of 
                         fi ve members is constructed from fi ve slightly different initial 
                         conditions to partially reduce the uncertainty in the seasonal 
                         forecasts. The seasonal mean precipitation and 2-meter temperature 
                         forecasts are compared with the observations. The comparison shows 
                         that, in general, forecasted precipitation is underestimated in 
                         the central part of the continent in the austral summer, whereas 
                         the forecasted 2 meter temperature is underestimated in most parts 
                         of the continent and throughout the year. Skill scores show higher 
                         skill in the northern part of the continent and lower skill in the 
                         southern part of the continent, but mixed skill signs are seen in 
                         the central part of the continent. During the El Niņo and La Niņa 
                         seasons, the forecast skill scores clearly increase. The 
                         downscaling of the Eta model seasonal forecasts provides added 
                         value over the driver global model forecasts, especially during 
                         rainy periods.",
                  doi = "10.1590/0001-3765202020181242",
                  url = "http://dx.doi.org/10.1590/0001-3765202020181242",
                 issn = "0001-3765",
             language = "en",
           targetfile = "chou_ten.pdf",
        urlaccessdate = "23 jan. 2021"
}


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