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@Article{AguiarCHPSGVV:2020:CrPaPr,
               author = "Aguiar, Ana Paula Dutra de and Collste, David and Harmackov{\'a}, 
                         Zuzana V. and Pereira, Laura and Selomane, Odirilwe and Galafassi, 
                         Diego and Van Vuuren, Detlef and Van der Leeuw, Sander",
          affiliation = "{Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais (INPE)} and {Stockholm 
                         University} and {Stockholm University} and {Stellenbosch 
                         University} and {Stockholm University} and {Stockholm University} 
                         and {PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency} and {Arizona 
                         State University}",
                title = "Co-designing global target-seeking scenarios: A cross-scale 
                         participatory process for capturing multiple perspectives on 
                         pathways to sustainability",
              journal = "Global Environmental Change",
                 year = "2020",
               volume = "65",
                pages = "e102198",
                month = "Nov.",
             keywords = "Target-seeking scenarios, Pathways, Sustainable Development Goals, 
                         Cross-scale analysis, Food system transformation, Three 
                         Horizons.",
             abstract = "The United Nations 2030 Agenda catalysed the development of global 
                         target-seeking sustainability-oriented scenarios representing 
                         alternative pathways to reach the Sustainable Development Goals 
                         (SDGs). Implementing the SDGs requires connected actions across 
                         local, national, regional, and global levels; thus, target-seeking 
                         scenarios need to reflect alternative options and tensions across 
                         those scales. We argue that the design of global 
                         sustainability-oriented target-seeking scenarios requires a 
                         consistent process for capturing multiple and contrasting 
                         perspectives on how to reach the goals, including the perspectives 
                         from multiple scales (e.g. local, national, regional) and 
                         geographic regions (e.g. the Global South). Here we propose a 
                         novel approach to codesign global target-seeking scenarios, 
                         consisting of (a) capturing global perspectives on pathways to the 
                         SDGs through a review of existing global scenarios; (b) a 
                         multi-stakeholder process to obtain multiple sub-global 
                         perspectives on pathways to sustainability; (c) an analysis of 
                         convergences, and crucially, divergences between global and 
                         regional perspectives on pathways to reach the SDGs, feeding into 
                         the design of new target-seeking scenario narratives. As a case 
                         study, we use the results of the 2018 African Dialogue on The 
                         World in 2050, discussing the future of agriculture and food 
                         systems. The identified divergent themes emerging from our 
                         analysis included urbanization, population growth, agricultural 
                         practices, and the roles of different actors in the future of 
                         agriculture. The results challenge some of the existing underlying 
                         assumptions of the current sustainability-oriented global 
                         scenarios (e.g. population growth, urbanisation, agricultural 
                         practices), indicating the relevance and timeliness of the 
                         proposed approach. We suggest that similar approaches can be 
                         replicated in other contexts to better inform the process of 
                         sustainability-oriented scenario co-design across scales, regions 
                         and cultures. In addition, we highlight the implications of the 
                         approach for scenario quantification and the evolution of modeling 
                         tools.",
                  doi = "10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2020.102198",
                  url = "http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2020.102198",
                 issn = "0959-3780",
             language = "en",
           targetfile = "aguiar_co.pdf",
        urlaccessdate = "19 abr. 2021"
}


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