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@InProceedings{ZepkaAzaVarSarPin:2014:PrHePr,
               author = "Zepka, Gisele dos Santos and Azambuja, Rodrigo R. and Vargas 
                         Junior, Vanderlei Rocha de and Saraiva, Antonio Carlos Varela and 
                         Pinto Junior, Osmar",
          affiliation = "{Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais (INPE)} and {} and 
                         {Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais (INPE)} and {Instituto 
                         Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais (INPE)} and {Instituto Nacional de 
                         Pesquisas Espaciais (INPE)}",
                title = "Predicting heavy precipitation and lightning for a mesoscale 
                         convective system case over southern Brazil",
            booktitle = "Anais...",
                 year = "2014",
         organization = "International Lightning Detection Conference, 23. (ILDC); and 
                         International Lightning Meteorology Conference, 5 (ILMC).",
             keywords = "lightning, precipitation, mesoscale convective system, WRF model, 
                         PLR, cumulus parameterizations.",
             abstract = "On December 10th through 11th 2012, a strong convection activity 
                         over southern Brazil grew into a huge Mesoscale Convective System 
                         (MCS) accompanied by heavy precipitation, hailstorm, damaging 
                         winds and dangerous lightning. The Civil Defense Authority 
                         reported that over 700,000 people experienced power outages due to 
                         either strong winds or lightning strikes or even suffered from 
                         flash floods caused by high rain volumes. The Brazilian Lightning 
                         Location System (BrasilDAT) detected more than 90,000 
                         cloud-to-ground (CG) lightning strikes during the MCS activity, 
                         and approximately 4,000 CG strokes presented large peak currents 
                         over 75 kA. The main objectives of this work were to achieve the 
                         most suitable configuration of the Weather Research and 
                         Forecasting (WRF) model, and to apply the Potential Lightning 
                         Region (PLR) tool, in order to forecast reliably this type of 
                         severe weather event with enough time in advance to adopt 
                         strategies that might minimize injuries and hazardous situations 
                         in the future. Firstly, the CG and IC lightning stroke rates, the 
                         peak currents distribution, and the IC/CG ratio were evaluated. 
                         Observed precipitation from a homogeneous network of surface 
                         meteorological stations was used as proxy data. Lightning and 
                         precipitation were compared during the MCS development in order to 
                         seek for correlations. As well known, current operational models 
                         cannot predict convective subgrid scale processes explicitly, due 
                         to their microscopic and discontinuous nature, and must do so via 
                         parameterization. In this case, a cumulus scheme should try to 
                         transport heat vertically, redistribute moisture, and reduce 
                         thermodynamic instability. Four cumulus parameterization schemes 
                         (CPS) in the WRFv3.3.1 model were investigated to proper simulate 
                         this MCS over southern Brazil. WRF grid points near meteorological 
                         stations with high accumulated precipitation values were chosen in 
                         order to assess the behavior of the simulated data against the 
                         observations. The Potential Lightning Region (PLR) is a tool that 
                         indicates the spatial distribution of lightning occurrence 
                         probabilities in a given area. PLR was developed from a 
                         combination of WRF output variables, and operationally tested over 
                         southeastern Brazil. The WRF convective parameterization selected 
                         from the previous analysis was used to generate new PLR maps over 
                         southern Brazil for the MCS. This case study served as a 
                         laboratory to expand PLR capabilities in the prediction of severe 
                         weather events.",
  conference-location = "Tucson, USA",
      conference-year = "mar. 18-19, 2014 / mar. 20-21, 2014",
                label = "lattes: 9435846940733081 3 ZepkaAzaVarSchPin:2014:PRLIHE",
             language = "pt",
           targetfile = "Zepka et al- Predicting Heavy Precipitation and Lightning for a 
                         MCS Case Over Southern Brazil-2014-ILDC-ILMC.pdf",
        urlaccessdate = "27 jan. 2021"
}


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