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@Article{PinhoMareSmit:2015:CoSoDy,
               author = "Pinho, Patricia Fernanda do and Marengo, Jos{\'e} Ant{\^o}nio 
                         and Smith, Mark Stafford",
          affiliation = "{Universidade de S{\~a}o Paulo (USP)} and {Instituto Nacional de 
                         Pesquisas Espaciais (INPE)} and {CSIRO Climate Adaptation 
                         Flagship}",
                title = "Complex socio-ecological dynamics driven by extreme events in the 
                         Amazon",
              journal = "Regional Environmental Change",
                 year = "2015",
               volume = "15",
                pages = "643--655",
                 note = "{Electronic supplementary material The online version of this} and 
                         {article (doi:10.1007/s10113-014-0659-z) contains supplementary} 
                         and material, which is available to authorized users.",
             keywords = "adaptive strategies, caboclos remote communities, policy and 
                         conservation of natural resources and ecosystems, brazilian 
                         Amazon.",
             abstract = "Several years with extreme floods or droughts in the past decade 
                         have caused human suffering in remote communities of the Brazilian 
                         Amazon. Despite documented local knowledge and practices for 
                         coping with the high seasonal variability characteristic of the 
                         regions hydrology (e.g., 10 m change in river levels between dry 
                         and flood seasons), and despite civil defense interventions by 
                         various levels of government, the more extreme years seem to have 
                         exceeded the coping capacity of the community. In this paper, we 
                         explore whether there is a real increase in variability, whether 
                         the community perceives that recent extreme events are outside the 
                         experience which shapes their responses to normal levels of 
                         variability, and what science-based policy could contribute to 
                         greater local resilience. Hydrological analyses suggest that 
                         variability is indeed increasing, in line with expectations from 
                         future climate change. However, current measures of hydrological 
                         regimes do not predict years with social hardship very well. 
                         Interviewees in two regions are able to express their strategies 
                         for dealing with normal variability very well, but also identify 
                         ways in which abnormal years exceed their ability to cope. Current 
                         civil defense arrangements struggle to deliver emergency 
                         assistance in a sufficiently timely and locally appropriate 
                         fashion. Combining these insights in the context of 
                         socialecological change, we suggest how better integration of 
                         science, policy and local knowledge could improve resilience to 
                         future trends, and identify some contributions science could make 
                         into such an arrangement.",
                  doi = "10.1007/s10113-014-0659-z",
                  url = "http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s10113-014-0659-z",
                 issn = "1436-3798 and 1436-378X",
                label = "lattes: 5719239270509869 2 PinhoMareSmit:2014:CoSoDy",
             language = "en",
           targetfile = "pinho_complex.pdf",
        urlaccessdate = "25 nov. 2020"
}


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