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@Article{SantiagoGiVoMeOmNˇ:2016:AvDeDa,
               author = "Santiago, Gabriela Ayane Chagas Felipe and Giarolla, Ang{\'e}lica 
                         and Von Randow, Celso and Menzes, R{\^o}mulo Sim{\~o}es Cezar 
                         and Ometto, Jean Pierre Henry Balbaud and N{\'o}brega, 
                         Rany{\'e}re Silva",
          affiliation = "{Universidade Federal de Pernambuco (UFPE)} and {Instituto 
                         Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais (INPE)} and {Instituto Nacional de 
                         Pesquisas Espaciais (INPE)} and {Universidade Federal de 
                         Pernambuco (UFPE)} and {Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais 
                         (INPE)} and {Universidade Federal de Pernambuco (UFPE)}",
                title = "Avalia{\c{c}}{\~a}o de destreza e das proje{\c{c}}{\~o}es do 
                         cen{\'a}rio de mudan{\c{c}}as clim{\'a}ticas A1B-Eta-HADCM3 
                         para o estado de Pernambuco",
              journal = "Revista de Geografia (Recife)",
                 year = "2016",
               volume = "33",
               number = "2",
                pages = "29--45",
             keywords = "Pernambuco, Modelo Eta, Simula{\c{c}}{\~a}o clim{\'a}tica, 
                         Pernambuco, Eta model, Climate simulation.",
             abstract = "O objetivo desta pesquisa foi avaliar destreza das 
                         proje{\c{c}}{\~o}es do clima presente (1960-1990), do modelo 
                         EtaHadCM3 das temperaturas m{\'a}xima, m{\'e}dia, 
                         m{\'{\i}}nima e precipita{\c{c}}{\~a}o. Avaliou-se 
                         mudan{\c{c}}as na din{\^a}mica das proje{\c{c}}{\~o}es 
                         clim{\'a}ticas para Pernambuco para os per{\'{\i}}odos de 
                         2010-2040 e 2041-2070. Para a avalia{\c{c}}{\~a}o do desempenho 
                         dos cen{\'a}rios clim{\'a}ticos gerados pelo modelo Eta-HadCM3 
                         foi realizada an{\'a}lise de regress{\~a}o, calculado 
                         {\'{\i}}ndice d para cada localidade na {\'a}rea de estudo, 
                         identificados e corrigidos os erros sistem{\'a}ticos das 
                         proje{\c{c}}{\~o}es. As temperaturas m{\'a}ximas e 
                         m{\'{\i}}nimas apresentaram valores mais precisos, a m{\'e}dia 
                         e a precipita{\c{c}}{\~a}o apresentaram valores mais exatos, 
                         por{\'e}m a precipita{\c{c}}{\~a}o foi mais comprometida em 
                         n{\'{\i}}vel de qualidade das sa{\'{\i}}das do modelo. Quanto 
                         {\`a} identifica{\c{c}}{\~a}o dos erros, viu-se que a 
                         temperatura m{\'a}xima foi subestimada e a m{\'{\i}}nima 
                         superestimada, mas que depois de corrigidas, os resultados foram 
                         satisfat{\'o}rios. Com rela{\c{c}}{\~a}o {\`a}s 
                         proje{\c{c}}{\~o}es, identificou-se que a 
                         precipita{\c{c}}{\~a}o apresentou redu{\c{c}}{\~a}o nos pontos 
                         estudados e as temperaturas apresentaram maiores valores, ambas de 
                         forma progressiva. Concluiu-se que as simula{\c{c}}{\~o}es 
                         clim{\'a}ticas regionais podem ser empregadas para estudos de 
                         mudan{\c{c}}as clim{\'a}ticas no estado, por{\'e}m os erros 
                         sistem{\'a}ticos devem ser considerados, j{\'a} que s{\~a}o 
                         inerentes {\`a}s imperfei{\c{c}}{\~o}es dos modelos, para que 
                         diminuam as incertezas da modelagem em estudos de impactos das 
                         mudan{\c{c}}as clim{\'a}ticas globais. ABSTRACT: The objective 
                         of this research was to evaluate the level of skill to projections 
                         {"}present{"} climate (1960-1990), the Eta-HadCM3 model of maximum 
                         temperatures, average, minimum and precipitation. We evaluated 
                         changes in the dynamics of climate projections to Pernambuco for 
                         the periods 2010-2040 and 2041-2070. For evaluating the 
                         performance of climate scenarios generated by the Eta-HadCM3 model 
                         regression analysis was performed, calculated index {"}d{"} for 
                         each location in the study area, identifying and correcting 
                         systematic errors of forecasts. The maximum and minimum 
                         temperatures were more accurate values, and the average and the 
                         precipitation values were more accurate, but the precipitation was 
                         more committed to quality level of the model outputs. The 
                         identification of errors, it is seen that the maximum temperature 
                         was underestimated and overestimated the minimum, but after the 
                         rectification, the results were satisfactory. Regarding 
                         projections, it was found that the precipitation decreased in the 
                         studied points and temperatures were higher, both progressively. 
                         It was concluded that regional climate simulations can be used to 
                         study climate change in the state, but the systematic errors must 
                         be considered, since they are inherent imperfections of the 
                         models, so diminishing the uncertainties of modeling studies of 
                         climate change impacts global.",
                 issn = "0104-5490",
                label = "lattes: 0213112231789493 2 SantiagoGiaRanOmeN{\'o}b:2016:AvDeDa",
             language = "pt",
           targetfile = "santiago_avaliacao.pdf",
        urlaccessdate = "30 nov. 2020"
}


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