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@Article{RibeiroNetoPazMareChou:2016:HyPrCl,
               author = "Ribeiro Neto, Alfredo and Paz, Adriano Rolim da and Marengo, 
                         Jos{\'e} Antonio and Chou, Sin Chan",
          affiliation = "{Universidade Federal de Pernambuco (UFPE)} and {Universidade 
                         Federal de Pernambuco (UFPE)} and {Centro Nacional de 
                         Monitoramento e Alertas de Desastres Naturais (CEMADEN)} and 
                         {Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais (INPE)}",
                title = "Hydrological processes and climate change in hydrographic regions 
                         of Brazil",
              journal = "Journal of Water Resource and Protection",
                 year = "2016",
               volume = "8",
               number = "12",
                pages = "1103--1127",
                 note = "{Setores de Atividade: Pesquisa e desenvolvimento 
                         cient{\'{\i}}fico.}",
             keywords = "America do Sul, Modelo Eta, Mudan{\c{c}}as clim{\'a}ticas, 
                         Modelo hidrologico, Hydrological Modelling, IPCC Scenarios, 
                         Climate Change, Impacts.",
             abstract = "The objective of this work is to assess the impacts of IPCC AR5 
                         climate change scenarios on water resources and hydrological 
                         processes across the entire Brazilian territory. Hydrological 
                         simulations are carried out in total drainage area of about 
                         11,535,645 km2 and average stream flow of about 272,460 m3 /s. The 
                         study area consists of different climates and land covers such as 
                         the Amazon Forest, Northeast Semiarid, Brazilian Savannah, 
                         Pantanal wetlands and temperate climate in the South. The 
                         atmospheric forcing to drive the large-scale hydrological model 
                         MGB-IPH is derived from the downscaling of two global climate 
                         models, HadGEM2-ES and MIROC5, by the Eta Regional Climate Model, 
                         at 20 km resolution. The Eta model provided the downscaling of the 
                         baseline (1961-1990) and three time-slices (2011- 2040, 2041-2070 
                         and 2071-2099). These projections adopted two emission scenarios, 
                         the RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5. The change in the average and extremes of 
                         precipitation, evapotranspiration, rates of river discharge and 
                         soil moisture were assessed. The simulations showed the response 
                         of the hydrographic regions due to change of precipitation and 
                         potential evapotranspiration in the scenarios. Water availability 
                         decreases in almost the entire study area (exception for the 
                         South) and the major basins for hydroelectric power generation are 
                         affected. The Northwest, Amazon and a small area along the 
                         Northeast Atlantic coast exhibited intensification of the extremes 
                         discharges, where the anomaly is positive for high-flow (Q10) and 
                         negative for low-flow (Q95). The results highlight the most 
                         climatic sensitive regions in Brazil in terms of hydrological 
                         variables and water resources.",
                  doi = "10.4236/jwarp.2016.812087",
                  url = "http://dx.doi.org/10.4236/jwarp.2016.812087",
                 issn = "1945-3094",
                label = "lattes: 4336175279058172 4 RibeiroNetoPazMareChan:2016:HyPrCl",
             language = "en",
           targetfile = "ribeiro neto_hydrological.pdf",
        urlaccessdate = "01 dez. 2020"
}


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