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@Article{MacedoAlmeSant:2018:MoDiEs,
               author = "Macedo, Rodrigo de Campos and Almeida, Cl{\'a}udia Maria de and 
                         Santos, Jo{\~a}o Roberto dos",
          affiliation = "{Instituto Brasileiro de Geografia e Estat{\'{\i}}stica (IBGE)} 
                         and {Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais (INPE)} and 
                         {Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais (INPE)}",
                title = "Modelagem din{\^a}mica espacial da expans{\~a}o da agricultura 
                         em Campos Novos-SC",
              journal = "Geosul",
                 year = "2018",
               volume = "33",
               number = "68",
                pages = "260--285",
                month = "set./dez.",
             keywords = "modelagem din{\^a}mica espacial, altera{\c{c}}{\~o}es de 
                         cobertura e uso da terra, expans{\~a}o agr{\'{\i}}cola.",
             abstract = "Modelos computacionais baseados no paradigma de aut{\^o}matos 
                         celulares foram concebidos recentemente para a 
                         simula{\c{c}}{\~a}o de mudan{\c{c}}as de uso e cobertura da 
                         terra, a exemplo de expans{\~a}o agr{\'{\i}}cola, processos de 
                         desmatamento, crescimento urbano, entre outros. O objetivo do 
                         presente trabalho foi o de aplicar e avaliar um modelo de 
                         aut{\^o}matos celulares para simular mudan{\c{c}}as de uso e 
                         cobertura da terra vinculadas {\`a} expans{\~a}o 
                         agr{\'{\i}}cola no munic{\'{\i}}pio de Campos Novos/SC. As 
                         simula{\c{c}}{\~o}es foram conduzidas para o per{\'{\i}}odo de 
                         2003 a 2012, sendo as simula{\c{c}}{\~o}es de 2002 a 2008 
                         retrospectivas, e as simula{\c{c}}{\~o}es de 2009 a 2012 
                         prospectivas. A aplica{\c{c}}{\~a}o do modelo revelou que houve 
                         expans{\~a}o agr{\'{\i}}cola durante o per{\'{\i}}odo 
                         analisado, em detrimento de ambientes nativos, tais como matas e 
                         campos serranos. Os resultados alcan{\c{c}}ados revelam o 
                         potencial da aplica{\c{c}}{\~a}o dessa classe de modelos para o 
                         estudo e a predi{\c{c}}{\~a}o de mudan{\c{c}}as de cobertura e 
                         uso da terra. ABSTRACT: Digital models based on the paradigm of 
                         cellular automata have been newly conceived for the simulation of 
                         land cover and land use change, such as agricultural expansion, 
                         deforestation processes, urban sprawl, amongst others. The aim of 
                         this study is to run and evaluate a cellular automata-based model 
                         designed for simulating land cover and land use change associated 
                         with agricultural expansion in the municipality of Campos Novos, 
                         Santa Catarina state, south of Brazil. The simulations were run 
                         for the time span from 2003 to 2012, where the yearly simulations 
                         from 2002 to 2008 are retrospective and those from 2009 to 2012 
                         prospective ones. The conceived model revealed that there was 
                         agricultural expansion during the analyzed period, with the 
                         simultaneous suppression of native vegetation, such as woods and 
                         high fields. The attained results demonstrate the promising 
                         potential of this class of models for the analysis and forecast of 
                         land cover and land use change.",
                  doi = "10.5007/2177-5230.2018v33n68p260",
                  url = "http://dx.doi.org/10.5007/2177-5230.2018v33n68p260",
                 issn = "0103-3964",
                label = "lattes: 1861914973833506 2 MacedoAlmeSant:2018:MoDiEs",
             language = "pt",
           targetfile = "macedo_modelagem.pdf",
                  url = "https://periodicos.ufsc.br/index.php/geosul/article/view/2177-5230.2018v33n68p260",
        urlaccessdate = "26 nov. 2020"
}


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