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@Article{CoelhoFirpAndr:2018:VeFrSo,
               author = "Coelho, Caio Augusto dos Santos and Firpo, M{\'a}ri Andrea 
                         Feldman and Andrade, Felipe Marques de",
          affiliation = "{Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais (INPE)} and {Instituto 
                         Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais (INPE)} and {Instituto Nacional de 
                         Pesquisas Espaciais (INPE)}",
                title = "A verification framework for South American sub-seasonal 
                         precipitation predictions",
              journal = "Meteorologische Zeitschrift",
                 year = "2018",
               volume = "27",
               number = "6",
                pages = "503--520",
             keywords = "sub-seasonal prediction, verification precipitation, South 
                         America.",
             abstract = "This paper proposes a verification framework for South American 
                         sub-seasonal (weekly accumulated) precipitation predictions 
                         produced one to four weeks in advance. The framework assesses both 
                         hindcast and near real time forecast quality focusing on a 
                         selection of attributes (association, accuracy, discrimination, 
                         reliability and resolution). These attributes are measured using 
                         deterministic and probabilistic scores. Such an attribute-based 
                         framework allows the production of verification information in 
                         three levels according to the availability of sub-seasonal 
                         hindcasts and near real time forecasts samples. The framework is 
                         useful for supporting future routine sub-seasonal prediction 
                         practice by helping forecasters to identify model forecast merits 
                         and deficiencies and regions where to trust the model guidance 
                         information. The three information levels are defined according to 
                         the verification sampling strategy and are referred to as target 
                         week hindcast verification, all season hindcast verification, all 
                         season near real time forecast verification. The framework is 
                         illustrated using ECMWF sub-seasonal precipitation predictions. 
                         For the investigated period (austral autumn), reasonable 
                         accordance was identified between hindcasts and near real time 
                         forecast quality across the three levels. Sub-seasonal 
                         precipitation predictions produced one to two weeks in advance 
                         presented better performance than those produced three to four 
                         weeks in advance. The northeast region of Brazil presented 
                         favorable sub-seasonal precipitation prediction performance, 
                         particularly in terms of association, accuracy and discrimination 
                         attributes. This region was identified as a region where 
                         sub-seasonal precipitation predictions produced one to four weeks 
                         in advance are most likely to be successful in South America. When 
                         aggregating all predictions over the South American continent the 
                         probabilistic assessment showed modest discrimination ability, 
                         with predictions clearly requiring calibration for improving 
                         reliability and possibly combination with predictions produced by 
                         other models for improving resolution. The proposed framework is 
                         also useful for providing feedback to model developers in 
                         identifying strengths and weaknesses for future sub-seasonal 
                         predictions systems improvements.",
                  doi = "10.1127/metz/2018/0898",
                  url = "http://dx.doi.org/10.1127/metz/2018/0898",
                 issn = "0941-2948",
                label = "lattes: 4978912302419377 1 CoelhoFirpAndr:2018:VeFrSo",
             language = "en",
           targetfile = "coelho_verification.pdf",
        urlaccessdate = "22 jan. 2021"
}


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