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@Article{CavalcanteDuar:2019:MoDiTh,
               author = "Cavalcante, Arn{\'o}bio de Mendon{\c{c}}a Barreto and Duarte, 
                         Aryberg de Souza",
          affiliation = "{Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais (INPE)} and {Instituto 
                         Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais (INPE)}",
                title = "Modeling the distribution of three cactus species of the caatinga 
                         biome in future climate scenarios",
              journal = "International Journal of Ecology and Environmental Sciences",
                 year = "2019",
               volume = "45",
               number = "2",
                pages = "191--203",
             keywords = "Cactos, Caatinga, Mudan{\c{c}}as Clim{\'a}ticas, Climate Change, 
                         Cactaceae, Rhipsalis, MaxEnt, Epiphytic Cactus, Impact.",
             abstract = "The climate predictions for the Caatinga (shrubland) biome this 
                         century include increased air temperature and reduced rainfall, 
                         leading to aridization. Studies about the risks posed to the 
                         biomes flora are scarce. The present article reports a study to 
                         model the distribution of three epiphytic cactus species native to 
                         the Caatinga biome (Rhipsalis floccosa Salm-Dyck ex Pfeiff., 
                         Rhipsalis lindbergiana K. Schum and Rhipsalis russellii Britton 
                         \& Rose) in future climate scenarios. For this purpose, we used 
                         nine environmental variables obtained from biodiversity databases 
                         and the MaxEnt algorithm, considering two future time intervals, 
                         2041-2060 and 2061-2080, centered respectively in 2050 and 2070, 
                         with the 1961-1990 time slice as current reference. The greenhouse 
                         gas concentration scenarios were RCP 4.5 and 8.5. Five 
                         distribution models were generated for each target species. All 
                         the future models projected contraction of more than 87% in the 
                         areas with high occurrence potential of the species in relation to 
                         the present area. The areas of high potential are in the majority 
                         at elevations with specific characteristics. The drastic 
                         contraction effect of the potential areas is a warning of possible 
                         local extinctions of the target species in the Caatinga biome. 
                         Furthermore, it allows inferring local extinction for other 
                         epiphyte species with similar climate requirements. Therefore, it 
                         appears premature to make any prediction of a low impact of 
                         climate change on the Caatinga biome. RESUMO: As previs{\~o}es 
                         clim{\'a}ticas para o bioma Caatinga neste s{\'e}culo 
                         incluemaumento de temperatura do ar e redu{\c{c}}{\~a}o das 
                         chuvas, levando-o {\`a} aridiza{\c{c}}{\~a}o. Estudos sobre os 
                         perigos que corre sua flora s{\~a}o escassos nesse contexto. O 
                         presente estudo tratou de modelar a distribui{\c{c}}{\~a}o de 
                         Rhipsalis floccosa Salm-Dyck ex Pfeiff., Rhipsalis lindbergiana K. 
                         Schum and Rhipsalis russellii Britton \& Rose, cactos 
                         ep{\'{\i}}fitos e nativos do bioma Caatinga em cen{\'a}rios 
                         clim{\'a}ticos futuros. Para tal, utilizou-se de bases de dados 
                         de biodiversidade, nove vari{\'a}veis ambientais e o algoritmo 
                         MaxEnt. Considerou-se os intervalos de tempo futuros 2041-2060 e 
                         2061- 2080 centrados, respectivamente, em 2050 e 2070, e como 
                         refer{\^e}ncia corrente a fatia de tempo 1961-1990. Os 
                         cen{\'a}rios de gases de efeito estufa foram RCP4.5 e 8.5. Cinco 
                         modelos de distribui{\c{c}}{\~a}o foram gerados por 
                         esp{\'e}cie-alvo. Todos os modelos futuros projetaram para uma 
                         contra{\c{c}}{\~a}o acima de 87% das {\'a}reas de alto 
                         potencial de ocorr{\^e}ncia das esp{\'e}cies em 
                         rela{\c{c}}{\~a}o {\`a} mesma {\'a}rea corrente. As {\'a}reas 
                         de alto potencial s{\~a}o, majoritariamente, 
                         eleva{\c{c}}{\~o}es com caracter{\'{\i}}sticas 
                         espec{\'{\i}}ficas. O dr{\'a}stico efeito contra{\c{c}}{\~a}o 
                         das {\'a}reas potenciais {\'e} um alerta para poss{\'{\i}}veis 
                         extin{\c{c}}{\~o}es locais das esp{\'e}cies-alvo no bioma 
                         Caatinga. Ademais, permite inferir extin{\c{c}}{\~o}es locais 
                         tamb{\'e}m para outras esp{\'e}cies ep{\'{\i}}fitas com 
                         exig{\^e}ncias semelhantes. Portanto, parece prematuro afirmar 
                         qualquer predi{\c{c}}{\~a}o de baixo impacto das mudan{\c{c}}as 
                         clim{\'a}ticas para o bioma Caatinga.",
                 issn = "0377-015X",
                label = "lattes: 7282660743064601 1 CavalcanteDuar:2019:MoDiTh",
             language = "en",
           targetfile = "1675-4538-1-SM.pdf",
                  url = "http://www.nieindia.org/Journal/index.php/ijees/",
        urlaccessdate = "24 nov. 2020"
}


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