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@Article{RozanteRaSiFeAlSi:2019:TeVa,
               author = "Rozante, Jos{\'e} Roberto and Ramirez, Enver and Silva Dias, 
                         Pedro Leite da and Fernandes, Alex de Almeida and Alvim, 
                         D{\'e}bora Souza and Silva, Vinicius Matoso",
          affiliation = "{Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais (INPE)} and {Instituto 
                         Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais (INPE)} and {Universidade de 
                         S{\~a}o Paulo (USP)} and {Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas 
                         Espaciais (INPE)} and {Universidade Federal do ABC (UFABC)}",
                title = "Development of an index for frost prediction: technique and 
                         validation",
              journal = "Meteorological Applications",
                 year = "2019",
               volume = "6",
                pages = "1807",
             keywords = "Temperature, Frost Index, Frost Prediction.",
             abstract = "An index for frost prediction is proposed and calibrated against 
                         observations. It takes into account: a) the main meteorological 
                         variables that favor or oppose to frost; b) weights attributed to 
                         these variables; c) means and standard deviations of these 
                         variables, only for cases in which frost occurs, as defined by 
                         observation of temperatures that are equal to or less than 6C. 
                         The meteorological variables used for the frost index IG (from the 
                         Portuguese, {\'{\i}}ndice de geada) are numerically predicted by 
                         a regional weather forecast model. An outcome of the calibration 
                         processes results that temperature has the largest contribution, 
                         followed by pressure and winds, while the other variables were 
                         adjusted to obey the restriction that the sum of weights are equal 
                         to one. After index calibration and threshold determination, the 
                         method was applied for 2017 winter season a case study for May 
                         2018 was also considered. In order to verify whether the new index 
                         is able to satisfactorily contribute to the weather forecasting, 
                         the results using the IG were compared to the temperature outputs 
                         of the numerical regional model. It was found that for three 
                         selected areas, and for all the forecasted hours, the IG produces 
                         better results than the model\‟s direct temperature 
                         forecasts. It was thus concluded that the use of the IG in an 
                         operational environment potentially provides considerable 
                         improvement in the predictive skill of frost events.",
                  doi = "10.1002/met.1807",
                  url = "http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/met.1807",
                 issn = "1350-4827",
                label = "lattes: 3781543923591839 1 RozanteGuSiFeAlMa:2019:TeVa",
             language = "en",
           targetfile = "met.1807.pdf",
        urlaccessdate = "05 dez. 2020"
}


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