author = "Bender, Andr{\'e}ia and Freitas, Edmilson Dias and Machado, Luiz 
                         Augusto Toledo",
          affiliation = "{Universidade de S{\~a}o Paulo (USP)} and {Universidade de 
                         S{\~a}o Paulo (USP)} and {Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas 
                         Espaciais (INPE)}",
                title = "The impact of future urban scenarios on a severe weather case in 
                         the metropolitan area of S{\~a}o Paulo",
              journal = "Climatic Change",
                 year = "2019",
               volume = "156",
                pages = "471--488",
             abstract = "In this work, convective parameters are applied, based on 
                         numerical simulations made with Brazilian Regional Atmospheric 
                         Modeling System (BRAMS) model, to a severe weather case which 
                         occurred in the metropolitan area of S{\~a}o Paulo (MASP). 
                         Scenarios of future urban area growth and increase of building 
                         heights were made to evaluate changes in convective parameters and 
                         rainfall for the study region. Using factorial planning and factor 
                         separation methods, we found that the urban area growth predicted 
                         for 2030 is capable of increasing the amount of precipitation, 
                         mainly due to the land use change from rural to urban. In the 
                         scenario of building heights increasing, it was found a tendency 
                         for rainfall suppression. The urban area for 2030 is the major 
                         factor contributing to increasing atmospheric instability and wind 
                         shear. Vertical urban growth causes an increase in atmospheric 
                         instability and a decrease in wind shear. The interaction between 
                         urban area and building height factors increases the amount of 
                         precipitation and storm motion over the MASP.",
                  doi = "10.1007/s10584-019-02527-1",
                  url = "http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s10584-019-02527-1",
                 issn = "0165-0009",
                label = "lattes: 5379515759830546 3 BenderFreiMach:2019:ImFuUr",
             language = "en",
           targetfile = "bender_impact.pdf",
        urlaccessdate = "17 abr. 2021"