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@Article{BurtonBeJoFeCaAn:2020:ElNiDr,
               author = "Burton, Chantelle and Betts, Richard A. and Jones, Chris D. and 
                         Feldpausch, Ted R. and Cardoso, Manoel Ferreira and Anderson, 
                         Liana O.",
          affiliation = "{Met Office Hadley Centre} and {Met Office Hadley Centre} and {Met 
                         Office Hadley Centre} and {University of Exeter} and {Instituto 
                         Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais (INPE)} and {Centro Nacional de 
                         Monitoramento e Alertas de Desastres Naturais (CEMADEN)}",
                title = "El Niņo driven changes in global fire 2015/16",
              journal = "Frontiers in Earth Science",
                 year = "2020",
               volume = "8",
                pages = "1",
                month = "June",
             keywords = "El Niņo, fire, burned area, emissions, carbon sink.",
             abstract = "El Niņo years are characterized by a high sea surface temperature 
                         anomaly in the Equatorial Pacific Ocean, which leads to unusually 
                         warm and dry conditions over many fire-prone regions globally. 
                         This can lead to an increase in burned area and emissions from 
                         fire activity, and socio-economic, and environmental losses. 
                         Previous studies using satellite observations to assess the 
                         impacts of the recent 2015/16 El Niņo found an increase in burned 
                         area in some regions compared to La Niņa years. Here, we use the 
                         dynamic land surface model JULES to assess how conditions differed 
                         as a result of the El Niņo by comparing simulations driven by 
                         observations from the year 2015/16 with mean climatological 
                         drivers of temperature, precipitation, humidity, wind, air 
                         pressure, and short and long-wave radiation. We use JULES with the 
                         interactive fire module INFERNO to assess the effects on 
                         precipitation, temperature, burned area, and the associated 
                         impacts on the carbon sink globally and for three regions: South 
                         America, Africa, and Asia. We find that the model projects a 
                         variable response in precipitation, with some areas including 
                         northern South America, southern Africa and East Asia getting 
                         drier, and most areas globally seeing an increase in temperature. 
                         As a result, higher burned area is simulated with El Niņo 
                         conditions in most regions, although there are areas of both 
                         increased and decreased burned area over Africa. South America 
                         shows the largest fire response with El Niņo, with a 13% increase 
                         in burned area and emitted carbon, corresponding with the largest 
                         decrease in carbon uptake. Within South America, peak fire occurs 
                         from August to October across central-southern Brazil, and 
                         temperature is shown to be the main driver of the El Niņo-induced 
                         increase in burned area during this period. Combined, our results 
                         indicate that although 2015/16 was not a peak year for global 
                         total burned area or fire emissions, the El Niņo led to an overall 
                         increase of 4% in burned area and 5% in emissions compared to a No 
                         El Niņo scenario for 2015/16, and contributed to a 4% reduction in 
                         the terrestrial carbon sink.",
                  doi = "10.3389/feart.2020.00199",
                  url = "http://dx.doi.org/10.3389/feart.2020.00199",
                 issn = "2296-6463",
                label = "lattes: 7181547335252993 5 BurtonBeJoFeCaAn:2020:ElNiDr",
             language = "pt",
           targetfile = "burton_el nino.pdf",
        urlaccessdate = "18 abr. 2021"
}


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