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Search local date and time: 31/01/2023 07:10.
1. Identity statement
Reference TypeJournal Article
Siteplutao.sid.inpe.br
Holder Codeisadg {BR SPINPE} ibi 8JMKD3MGPCW/3DT298S
IdentifierJ8LNKAN8RW/3D53E9G
Repositorydpi.inpe.br/plutao/2012/11.28.15.30.23   (restricted access)
Last Update2013:01.10.12.37.05 (UTC) administrator
Metadata Repositorydpi.inpe.br/plutao/2012/11.28.15.30.24
Metadata Last Update2021:01.02.22.16.44 (UTC) administrator
Secondary KeyINPE--PRE/
ISSN1850-468X
0325-187X
Labellattes: 0652826426407936 1 AndradeMuCaLoBiBe:2012:AVMUFR
Citation KeyAndradeMuCaLoBiBe:2012:AvMuFr
TitleAvaliação de mudanças na frequência de sistemas frontais sobre o sul da américa do sul em projeções do clima futuro
Year2012
Access Date2023, Jan. 31
Secondary TypePRE PI
Number of Files1
Size1077 KiB
2. Context
Author1 Andrade, Kelen Martins
2 Muller, Gabriela Viviana
3 Cavalcanti, Iracema F. A.
4 Long, Maria Elena F
5 Bidegain, Mario
6 Berri, Guillermo
Group1 DOP-CPT-INPE-MCTI-GOV-BR
Affiliation1 Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais (INPE)
Author e-Mail Address1 kelen.andrade@cptec.inpe.br
e-Mail Addresskelen.andrade@cptec.inpe.br
JournalMeteorologica
Volume37
Number1
Pages15-26
History (UTC)2012-11-28 23:06:26 :: lattes -> marciana :: 2012
2013-01-16 15:17:07 :: marciana -> administrator :: 2012
2021-01-02 22:16:44 :: administrator -> marciana :: 2012
3. Content and structure
Is the master or a copy?is the master
Content Stagecompleted
Transferable1
Content TypeExternal Contribution
Version Typepublisher
Keywordssistemas frontais
clima futuro
América do Sul
frontal systems
climate change
South America
AbstractA frequência de sistemas frontais sobre o sul da América do Sul identificada na reanálise do NCEP/NCAR é comparada com as simulações dos modelos GFDL e Hadley e projetadas no clima futuro. As análises para identificar casos de sistemas frontais foram feitas em três regiões que cobrem áreas do Brasil, Uruguai, Paraguai e Argentina. Esta análise foi realizada com o fim de investigar as características de eventos extremos no clima presente e em projeções do clima futuro. Para o clima presente observou-se que os modelos analisados simularam bem as características sinóticas dos sistemas frontais. No entanto, quando se compara a frequência de ocorrência das frentes entre a reanálise e as simulações, observa-se que os modelos GFDL e Hadley superestimam seu número e apenas o GFDL consegue reproduzir a variabilidade mensal. O modelo Hadley superestima ainda mais em relação ao NCEP e GFDL no clima presente. A tendência positiva no número de frentes observada na área 3 (65ºW-60ºW, 33ºS-38ºS) nos resultados da reanálise não é simulada pelos modelos. Quando os casos mais intensos são selecionados, o modelo GFDL é o que superestima mais o número de sistemas frontais. Os dois modelos indicam aumento na frequência de sistemas frontais no futuro nas três áreas, porém em menor proporção na área 3. ABSTRACT: The frequency of frontal systems reaching the south of South America is compared with reanalysis NCEP/NCAR and results of GFDL and Hadley models for the future climate. Three regions were analyzed to identify the frontal systems, in areas of Brazil, Uruguay, Paraguay and Argentina. The following criteria were used: increase of sea surface pressure, reduction of the temperature and change of the meridional wind at 850hPa, in two consecutive days. Selected cases with temperature drop above five degrees, considered the most intense, were also analyzed. For the present climate it was observed that the models simulated well the synoptic characteristics of frontal systems. However, when comparing the frequency of frontal occurrence between reanalysis data and models simulations, the GFDL and Hadley models overestimated their numbers. The Hadley model overestimates further more than the NCEP and GFDL in present climate. The positive trend observed in area 3 (65ºW-60ºW, 33ºS-38ºS) from NCEP reanalysis is not simulated by the models. When the most intense systems are selected, the GFDL model shows higher overestimation in number of frontal systems. Both models indicate an increase of frontal systems frequency in future in the three areas, although less in area 3.
AreaMET
Arrangementurlib.net > BDMCI > Fonds > Produção anterior à 2021 > DIDOP > Avaliação de mudanças...
doc Directory Contentaccess
source Directory Contentthere are no files
agreement Directory Contentthere are no files
4. Conditions of access and use
Languagept
User Groupadministrator
lattes
marciana
Visibilityshown
Archiving Policydenypublisher denyfinaldraft
Read Permissiondeny from all and allow from 150.163
Update Permissionnot transferred
5. Allied materials
Next Higher Units8JMKD3MGPCW/43SQKNE
URL (untrusted data)http://www.cenamet.org.ar/archivos/Vol37-Nro1-2012.pdf
DisseminationPORTALCAPES; SCIELO; MGA.
Host Collectiondpi.inpe.br/plutao@80/2008/08.19.15.01
6. Notes
Empty Fieldsalternatejournal archivist callnumber copyholder copyright creatorhistory descriptionlevel doi format isbn lineage mark mirrorrepository month nextedition notes orcid parameterlist parentrepositories previousedition previouslowerunit progress project readergroup resumeid rightsholder secondarydate secondarymark session shorttitle sponsor subject targetfile tertiarymark tertiarytype typeofwork
7. Description control
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1. Identity statement
Reference TypeJournal Article
Siteplutao.sid.inpe.br
Holder Codeisadg {BR SPINPE} ibi 8JMKD3MGPCW/3DT298S
IdentifierJ8LNKAN8RW/3C63R7E
Repositorydpi.inpe.br/plutao/2012/06.21.19.32   (restricted access)
Last Update2012:08.29.14.06.05 (UTC) administrator
Metadata Repositorydpi.inpe.br/plutao/2012/06.21.19.32.06
Metadata Last Update2021:01.02.22.16.43 (UTC) administrator
DOI10.1098/rsta.2011.0350
ISSN1364-503X
Labellattes: 4978912302419377 3 JuppLoweCoelStep:2012:ViVeRe
Citation KeyJuppLoweCoelStep:2012:ViVeRe
TitleOn the visualization, verification and recalibration of ternary probabilistic forecasts
ProjectFAPESP 2005/05210-7, 2006/02497-6
Year2012
MonthMar.
Access Date2023, Jan. 31
Secondary TypePRE PI
Number of Files1
Size1436 KiB
2. Context
Author1 Jupp, Tim E.
2 Lowe, Rachel
3 Coelho, Caio Augusto dos Santos
4 Stephenson, David B.
Group1
2
3 DOP-CPT-INPE-MCTI-GOV-BR
Affiliation1 Univ Exeter, Math Res Inst, Exeter, Devon, England
2 Abdus Salam Int Ctr Theoret Phys, Trieste, Italy
3 Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais (INPE)
4 Univ Exeter, Math Res Inst, Exeter, Devon, England
Author e-Mail Address1 t.e.jupp@ex.ac.uk
2
3 caio@cptec.inpe.br
e-Mail Addresscaio@cptec.inpe.br
JournalPhilosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A: Mathematical, Physical and Engineering Sciences
Volume370
Number1962
Pages1100-1120
Secondary MarkB1_ASTRONOMIA_/_FÍSICA B3_ECOLOGIA_E_MEIO_AMBIENTE A1_ENGENHARIAS_III B3_ENGENHARIAS_IV A2_GEOCIÊNCIAS B1_INTERDISCIPLINAR
History (UTC)2012-06-22 00:11:00 :: lattes -> secretaria.cpa@dir.inpe.br :: 2012
2012-09-27 12:50:00 :: secretaria.cpa@dir.inpe.br -> administrator :: 2012
2021-01-02 22:16:43 :: administrator -> marciana :: 2012
3. Content and structure
Is the master or a copy?is the master
Content Stagecompleted
Transferable1
Content TypeExternal Contribution
Version Typepublisher
Keywordsmap
climate
colour
AbstractWe develop a graphical interpretation of ternary probabilistic forecasts in which forecasts and observations are regarded as points inside a triangle. Within the triangle, we define a continuous colour palette in which hue and colour saturation are defined with reference to the observed climatology. In contrast to current methods, forecast maps created with this colour scheme convey all of the information present in each ternary forecast. The geometrical interpretation is then extended to verification under quadratic scoring rules (of which the Brier score and the ranked probability score are well-known examples). Each scoring rule defines an associated triangle in which the square roots of the score, the reliability, the uncertainty and the resolution all have natural interpretations as root mean square distances. This leads to our proposal for a ternary reliability diagram in which data relating to verification and calibration can be summarized. We illustrate these ideas with data relating to seasonal forecasting of precipitation in South America, including an example of nonlinear forecast calibration. Codes implementing these ideas have been produced using the statistical software package R and are available from the authors.
AreaMET
Arrangementurlib.net > BDMCI > Fonds > Produção anterior à 2021 > DIDOP > On the visualization,...
doc Directory Contentaccess
source Directory Contentthere are no files
agreement Directory Contentthere are no files
4. Conditions of access and use
Languageen
User Groupadministrator
lattes
secretaria.cpa@dir.inpe.br
Reader Groupadministrator
secretaria.cpa@dir.inpe.br
Visibilityshown
Archiving Policydenypublisher denyfinaldraft12
Read Permissiondeny from all and allow from 150.163
Update Permissionnot transferred
5. Allied materials
Next Higher Units8JMKD3MGPCW/43SQKNE
Host Collectiondpi.inpe.br/plutao@80/2008/08.19.15.01
6. Notes
Empty Fieldsalternatejournal archivist callnumber copyholder copyright creatorhistory descriptionlevel dissemination format isbn lineage mark mirrorrepository nextedition notes orcid parameterlist parentrepositories previousedition previouslowerunit progress resumeid rightsholder secondarydate secondarykey session shorttitle sponsor subject targetfile tertiarymark tertiarytype typeofwork url
7. Description control
e-Mail (login)marciana
update