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1. Identificação
Tipo de ReferênciaResumo em Evento (Conference Proceedings)
Sitemtc-m16d.sid.inpe.br
Código do Detentorisadg {BR SPINPE} ibi 8JMKD3MGPCW/3DT298S
Identificador8JMKD3MGP7W/3CF6G5B
Repositóriosid.inpe.br/mtc-m19/2012/08.16.18.42
Repositório de Metadadossid.inpe.br/mtc-m19/2012/08.16.18.42.46
Última Atualização dos Metadados2021:03.06.19.30.44 (UTC) administrator
Chave SecundáriaINPE--PRE/
Chave de CitaçãoAguiarOmSoAsAnLa:2012:CoEmRe
TítuloScenarios for the Amazonia 2050: combining emission reductions and social development
Ano2012
Data de Acesso15 jun. 2024
Tipo SecundárioPRE CI
2. Contextualização
Autor1 Aguiar, A. P. D.
2 Ometto, J. P.
3 Soler, L. S.
4 Assis, T.
5 Andrade, P. R.
6 Lapolla, D.
Grupo1 CST-CST-SPG-INPE-MCTI-GOV-BR
2 CST-CST-SPG-INPE-MCTI-GOV-BR
3 CST-CST-SPG-INPE-MCTI-GOV-BR
4 CST-CST-SPG-INPE-MCTI-GOV-BR
Afiliação1 Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais (INPE)
2 Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais (INPE)
3 Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais (INPE)
4 Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais (INPE)
5
6 UNESP/Rio Claro
Nome do EventoPlanet Under Pressure Conference, (PUP).
Localização do EventoLondon
Data26-29 Mar. 2012
Título do LivroAbstracts
Tipo TerciárioPoster Session
Histórico (UTC)2013-02-06 10:49:28 :: marciana -> administrator :: 2012
2021-03-06 19:30:44 :: administrator -> marciana :: 2012
3. Conteúdo e estrutura
É a matriz ou uma cópia?é a matriz
Estágio do Conteúdoconcluido
Transferível1
Tipo do ConteúdoExternal Contribution
Palavras-Chaveland use
scenario
Amazonia
modeling
ResumoDeforestation in Amazonia has decreased significantly in the last five years, from around 27,772 km2 in 2004 to around 6,000 km2 in 2010. This decrease has been attributed to a net of governmental/civil society actions, and commodities markets related factors. In spite of this, there is an enormous uncertainty about the fate of the forest. In the next decades, we can expect an increase in food and biofuel demands associated to global population growth and consumption patterns, which can induce both direct and indirect deforestation. Ambitious infra-structure plans also may induce occupation of unprotected areas. Possible climate change can affect the region through intensification of droughts and vulnerability to forest fires. In order to explore future scenarios for the region, there is a need to understand which institutional, political and economical conditions at multiple levels, from national to local, will be able to act as a counterforce to the commodities market pressure, reducing emissions while bringing social development. We present the preliminary results of a project aiming at discussing sustainability scenarios for the Amazonia, combining a qualitative scenario methodology and two spatially-explicit quantitative modeling frameworks: one for land use change (LuccME) and another for deforestation emission estimates (INPE-EM), both representing the heterogeneity of land change processes in the region. A panel of expert constructed storylines quantified in terms of pasture, annual/perennial crops, and secondary vegetation trajectories. INPE-EM is coupled to LuccME to estimate emission reductions resulting from spatial projections of land use trajectories under three different scenarios: (a) emission reductions without social development; (b) sustainability and social development; (c) return to uncontrolled deforestation. Initial modeling results showed that emission reduction in (a) and (b) can be of the order of 6 GtCO2 or more, depending on socioeconomic incentives to the expansion and permanence of secondary vegetation as sinks of carbon.
ÁreaCST
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4. Condições de acesso e uso
Grupo de Usuáriosmarciana
Visibilidadeshown
Permissão de Leituraallow from all
Permissão de Atualizaçãonão transferida
5. Fontes relacionadas
Repositório Espelhosid.inpe.br/mtc-m19@80/2009/08.21.17.02.53
Unidades Imediatamente Superiores8JMKD3MGPCW/449U4PL
Acervo Hospedeirosid.inpe.br/mtc-m19@80/2009/08.21.17.02
6. Notas
Campos Vaziosarchivingpolicy archivist callnumber copyholder copyright creatorhistory descriptionlevel dissemination doi e-mailaddress edition editor electronicmailaddress format isbn issn label language lineage mark nextedition notes numberoffiles numberofvolumes orcid organization pages parameterlist parentrepositories previousedition previouslowerunit progress project publisher publisheraddress readergroup resumeid rightsholder schedulinginformation secondarydate secondarymark serieseditor session shorttitle size sponsor subject targetfile tertiarymark type url versiontype volume
7. Controle da descrição
e-Mail (login)marciana
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