@InProceedings{TorresFerr:2008:SePaCo,
author = "Torres, Roger Rodrigues and Ferreira, Nelson Jesus",
affiliation = "{Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais (INPE/CPTEC)} and
{Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais (INPE/CPTEC)}",
title = "Simula{\c{c}}{\~a}o de um evento de precipita{\c{c}}{\~a}o
intensa utilizando o modelo ETA: sensibilidade {\`a}
parametriza{\c{c}}{\~a}o convectiva",
booktitle = "Anais...",
year = "2008",
organization = "Congresso Brasileiro de Meteorologia, 15.",
keywords = "parametriza{\c{c}}{\~a}o convectiva, Eta, Betts-Miller, Janjic,
Kain-Fritsch.",
abstract = "Simula{\c{c}}{\~o}es num{\'e}ricas foram realizadas para
avaliar a previsibilidade da precipita{\c{c}}{\~a}o do modelo
Eta com diferentes esquemas de parametriza{\c{c}}{\~a}o
convectiva (Betts-Miller-Janjic e Kain-Fritsch), para um caso de
precipita{\c{c}}{\~a}o intensa ocorrida no dia 24 de outubro de
2007 na regi{\~a}o sudeste do Brasil. A precipita{\c{c}}{\~a}o
foi avaliada atrav{\'e}s de dados observados, utilizando-se os
{\'{\i}}ndices ETS, BIAS, POD e RAF. As simula{\c{c}}{\~o}es
com KF apresentaram as maiores diferen{\c{c}}as entre
simula{\c{c}}{\~a}o e observa{\c{c}}{\~a}o. O modelo com BMJ
superestimou as chuvas de intensidade fraca e moderada e
subestimou {\`a}s de intensidade forte. As simula{\c{c}}{\~o}es
com KF obtiveram melhores desempenhos para as chuvas fraca e
moderada, por{\'e}m superestimaram bastante as
precipita{\c{c}}{\~o}es com valores acima de 38 mm. Apesar de
nenhum dos esquemas serem melhor do que o outro em todos os
par{\^a}metros analisados, podemos concluir que BMJ foi o mais
adequado para simular este caso, devido aos menores valores de RAF
e aos maiores valores de ETS e POD. Este resultado possivelmente
se deve ao fato de que, apesar de KF apresentar uma
f{\'{\i}}sica mais detalhada dos processos convectivos, ele
ainda n{\~a}o sofreu tantos ajustes para a regi{\~a}o de estudo
como BMJ que est{\'a} implementada na vers{\~a}o operacional de
tempo. ABSTRACT: Simulations run by Eta Model over Southeast of
Brazil were evaluated with respect to precipitation predictability
in an intense precipitation event which occurred on 24 October
2007 using different schemes to produce convective precipitation:
Betts-Miller-Janjic and Kain-Fritsch. Precipitation was evaluated
against surface observations using Equitable Threat Score, Bias
Score, Probability of Detection and False Alarm Rate. Simulations
using KF showed higher differences between simulation and
observation than BMJ. Model with BMJ overestimated weak and
moderated precipitations and underestimated strong precipitations
rate. KF simulations showed better results for weak and moderated
precipitations, but overestimated precipitations rate larger than
38 mm. Despite any scheme was better than de other for every
analyzed parameter, we can conclude that, for this case studied,
Eta model with BMJ was the most appropriated for simulating
precipitation over Southeast of Brazil, due to smaller values of
FAR and bigger values of ETS and POD. It is possible that these
results are related to the fact that, even though KF represents
better the physics involved on convective process, it still not
has several adjustments as BMJ used in the operational version.",
conference-location = "S{\~a}o Paulo",
conference-year = "24-29 ago",
copyholder = "SID/SCD",
language = "pt",
organisation = "SBMET",
targetfile = "torres_simula{\c{c}}ao.pdf",
urlaccessdate = "05 jun. 2024"
}