@Article{CavalcantiMüllAndrFern:2013:GFMoBe,
               author = "Cavalcanti, Iracema Fonseca de Albuquerque and M{\"u}ller, G. V. 
                         and Andrade, Kelen Martins and Fern{\'a}ndez Long, M. E.",
          affiliation = "{Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais (INPE)} and Centro de 
                         Investigaciones Cient{\'{\i}}ficas y Transferencia de 
                         Tecnolog{\'{\i}}a a la Produccion, Diamante, Argentina and 
                         {Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais (INPE)} and Facultad de 
                         Agronom{\'{\i}}a, C{\'a}tedra de Climatolog{\'{\i}}a y 
                         Fenolog{\'{\i}}a Agr{\'{\i}}colas, Universidad de Buenos Aires 
                         (UBA), Argentina",
                title = "Cold air intrusions over southeastern South America - GFDL model 
                         behavior regarding climate simulations in the 20th century and 
                         future projections",
              journal = "Global and Planetary Change",
                 year = "2013",
               volume = "111",
                pages = "31--42",
             keywords = "CMIP3-GFDL-CM2.0, Cold air, Future projections, South America, 
                         Temperature extremes, Atmospheric temperature, Computer 
                         simulation, Global warming, Climate models, agricultural 
                         production, airflow, climate modeling, climate prediction, cold 
                         air, extreme event, frost, general circulation model, global 
                         warming, nature-society relations, temperature anomaly, 
                         temperature gradient, twentieth century, South America.",
             abstract = "Cold air intrusions in three areas frequently affected by frosts 
                         of southeastern South America are analyzed based on GFDL-CM2.0 
                         Coupled Atmospheric and Oceanic Global Circulation Model. The 
                         general objective is to investigate the model ability to simulate 
                         the frequency of intrusions in the present climate as well as the 
                         changes in the frequency of occurrence and atmospheric 
                         characteristics in a future climate scenario. The cold period (May 
                         to September) is analyzed for the control period 1961 to 1990 and 
                         for the period 2081 to 2100 from the CMIP3 A2 scenario, which 
                         reflects the extreme global warming. The coupled GFDL-CM2.0 
                         overestimated the number of cold air intrusions for the present 
                         climate (control). This systematic error should be considered in 
                         the analyses of future climate results. Future projections 
                         indicated a reduction of these cases in GFDL results. As this 
                         model overestimated the number of cases, the reduction could be 
                         even greater. Composites of extreme cases for the present and 
                         future climate in the three areas indicated intensification of the 
                         temperature gradient which suggests more vigorous frontal systems, 
                         intensification of post-frontal highs and cold air extending to 
                         lower latitudes as compared to the present climate. Anomaly 
                         intensification was related to the climatological mean 
                         temperature, which is higher in the future than in the present. 
                         Therefore, even with less cold air intrusion over southeastern 
                         South America and a lower number of frost cases in the three 
                         areas, the occurrence of more intense systems would have an impact 
                         on the agriculture of these areas and such impact would extend to 
                         lower latitudes.© 2013 Elsevier B.V.",
                  doi = "10.1016/j.gloplacha.2013.08.006",
                  url = "http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.gloplacha.2013.08.006",
                 issn = "0921-8181",
                label = "scopus 2013-11",
             language = "en",
           targetfile = "Cavalcanti_Cold.pdf",
        urlaccessdate = "17 jun. 2024"
}