@InProceedings{BaltazarChouDere:2022:SeFoPe,
               author = "Baltazar, Roberto Leo dos Santos and Chou, Sin Chan and 
                         Dereczynski, Claudine",
          affiliation = "{Universidade Federal do Rio de Janeiro (UFRJ)} and {Instituto 
                         Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais (INPE)} and {Universidade Federal 
                         do Rio de Janeiro (UFRJ)}",
                title = "Seasonal forecast performance of the ETA model driven by INPE's 
                         BESM model",
                 year = "2022",
         organization = "Workshop em Modelagem Num{\'e}rica de Tempo, Clima e 
                         Mudan{\c{c}}as Clim{\'a}ticas Usando o Modelo Eta: Aspectos 
                         F{\'{\i}}sicos e Num{\'e}ricos (WorEta), 7.",
            publisher = "INPE",
             keywords = "Seasonal forecasts, South America, Model evaluation.",
             abstract = "Global climate models are important tools for weather and climate 
                         simulations, but the low resolution of their forecasts provide 
                         insufficient information for local-scale planning. The 
                         introduction of regional climate models allows for the downscaling 
                         and additional detailing of the forecasts produced by global 
                         models, enabling forecasts for more limited areas and with more 
                         specific purposes. The increase in resolution also allows for a 
                         greater ability to predict extreme events, which is important in 
                         managing water crises and preventing loss of life in natural 
                         disasters. The goal of this study is to evaluate the seasonal 
                         climate forecasts of the Eta regional model driven by the BESM 
                         forecasts, both models developed by CPTEC/INPE, focusing on 
                         extreme events that took place in the Brazil Southeast and the 
                         S{\~a}o Francisco River Basin. The Eta regional model provides 
                         seasonal climate forecasts for all of Brazil with a resolution of 
                         40km, using the sea surface temperatures (SST) predicted by the 
                         BESM model. The evaluation of the models predictions consisted of 
                         comparing predicted precipitation anomaly values to those observed 
                         by MSWEP for a set of years of extreme drought and flood events in 
                         the southeast region, for the trimester of December, January and 
                         February from 1987 to 2010. The Eta40km model forecasts were also 
                         evaluated for air temperature, 2m temperature, mean sea level 
                         pressure, vertical velocity and geopotential height, using the 
                         ERA5 Reanalysis values for comparison. The results indicate that 
                         the Eta40km-BESM system was able to predict the 3 extreme rainfall 
                         events identified in the studied period, failed to predict the 
                         most intense dry event and predicted the second most intense dry 
                         event. In general, the model underestimated predicted 
                         precipitation in years with observed positive anomalies and 
                         overestimated in years with observed negative anomalies. The 
                         seasonal forecast skill is limited, and current model improvement 
                         are ongoing.",
  conference-location = "Online",
      conference-year = "26-30 set. 2022",
                  ibi = "8JMKD3MGP3W34T/47MGJRP",
                  url = "http://urlib.net/ibi/8JMKD3MGP3W34T/47MGJRP",
           targetfile = "TO_04_A1_BaltazarR.pdf",
        urlaccessdate = "05 jun. 2024"
}