@PhDThesis{Andreoli:2002:VaPrTe,
author = "Andreoli, Rita Val{\'e}ria",
title = "Variabilidade e previsibilidade da temperatura da
superf{\'{\i}}cie do mar no Atl{\^a}ntico Tropical",
school = "Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais (INPE)",
year = "2002",
address = "S{\~a}o Jos{\'e} dos Campos",
month = "2002-08-02",
keywords = "previs{\~a}o de tempo e estudos clim{\'a}ticos, temperatura da
superf{\'{\i}}cie do mar, variabilidade, varia{\c{c}}{\~a}o
anual, previs{\~a}o, an{\'a}lise estat{\'{\i}}stica
multivariada, annual variations, sea surface temperature,
variability, predictions, multivariate statistical analysis.",
abstract = "A variabilidade interanual e decadal da Temperatura da
Superf{\'{\i}}cie do Mar (TSM) e a circula{\c{c}}{\~a}o
atmosf{\'e}rica associada no Atl{\^a}ntico Tropical (AT), para o
per{\'{\i}}odo de 1945 a 1993 {\'e} estudada usando
fun{\c{c}}{\~o}es ortogonais emp{\'{\i}}ricas e an{\'a}lises
de compostos. Em adi{\c{c}}{\~a}o, s{\~a}o constru{\'{\i}}dos
modelos estat{\'{\i}}sticos baseados em An{\'a}lises de
Correla{\c{c}}{\~o}es Can{\^o}nicas para prever anomalias de
TSM (ATSM) neste setor. Os padr{\~o}es equatorial e dipolo
s{\~a}o os modos dominantes nas escalas de tempo interanual e
decadal. Para a escala de tempo interanual, o modo de dipolo
{\'e} mais forte durante o per{\'{\i}}odo de 1945 a 1961 e o
modo equatorial, durante os per{\'{\i}}odos de 1962 a 1976 e
1977 a 1989. Esses modos s{\~a}o diretamente for{\c{c}}ados por
flutua{\c{c}}{\~o}es do vento em superf{\'{\i}}cie. Os modos
equatorial e dipolo s{\~a}o relacionados um com o outro, tal que,
um pode evoluir para o outro e vice-versa em escalas de tempo
interanual e decadal. Como parte da evolu{\c{c}}{\~a}o, ATSM na
banda entre 15šN e 15šS exibem deslocamentos meridional, os quais
s{\~a}o relacionados a dura{\c{c}}{\~a}o e intensidade dos
modos equatorial e dipolo. Ambos, os modos equatorial e dipolo
mostram forte sazonalidade. O dipolo {\'e} mais frequente durante
o per{\'{\i}}odo de fevereiro a maio com m{\'a}xima
ocorr{\^e}ncia em mar{\c{c}}o e a localiza{\c{c}}{\~a}o e
magnitude de seus centros mostram diferen{\c{c}}as sazonais. A
localiza{\c{c}}{\~a}o do modo equatorial {\'e} aproximadamente
a mesma por todo o ano e este modo {\'e} mais frequente durante o
per{\'{\i}}odo de junho a novembro, com m{\'a}xima
ocorr{\^e}ncia em julho. As previs{\~o}es mensais de ATSM para o
per{\'{\i}}odo de mar{\c{c}}o a junho com os preditores do AT e
Pac{\'{\i}}fico Equatorial (PE) e defasagens de 3 a 6 meses
s{\~a}o melhores na regi{\~a}o do Atl{\^a}ntico Norte (RAN) do
que as das regi{\~o}es do Atl{\^a}ntico Sul (RAS) e
Atl{\^a}ntico Equatorial (RAE). Isto implica preditores dos meses
de novembro a mar{\c{c}}o. A previs{\~a}o para as RAS e RAE
n{\~a}o {\'e} melhorada com a inclus{\~a}o dos preditores do PE
al{\'e}m do AT. Isto pode refletir o fato que a variabilidade
nessas regi{\~o}es {\'e} relacionada a fatores locais. ABSTRACT:
The interannual and decadal variability of the sea surface
temperature (SST) and the associated atmospheric circulation in
the Tropical Atlantic (TA) for the 1945-1993 period is studied
using the empirical orthogonal function and composite techniques.
In addition, statistical models based on the canonical correlation
analysis are constructed to forecast the SST anomalies (SSTA) in
this sector. The equatorial and dipole patterns are the dominant
modes at the interannual and decadal time scales. For the
interannual time scale, the dipole mode is stronger during the
1949-1961 period and the equatorial mode, during the 1962-1977 and
1978-1989 periods. These modes are directly forced by fluctuations
in the surface winds. The equatorial and dipole modes are related
to each other, such that one can evolve into the other and
vice-versa at interannual and decadal time scales. As part of the
evolution, the SSTA in the band between 15šN and 15šS exhibit
meridional displacements, which are, in turn, related to the
duration and intensity of the equatorial and dipole modes. Both,
the dipole and equatorial modes show strong seasonality. The
dipole mode is more frequent during the February-May with maximum
occurrence in March and the location and magnitude of its centers
show seasonal differences. The location of equatorial mode is
approximately the same throughout the year and this mode is more
frequent during June-November period, with maximum in July. The
monthly forecasts of the SST for March to June with the predictors
of the TA and Equatorial Pacific (PE) and 3-6 month lags have
better skill in the North Atlantic region (RAN) than in the South
Atlantic (RAS) and Equatorial Atlantic (RAE) regions. This implies
monthly predictors from November to March. The forecast skill for
the RAS and RAE is not improved with the inclusion of the
predictors of the PE besides the TA. This may reflect the fact
that the SST variability in these regions is related to the local
factors.",
committee = "Rao, Vadlamudi Brahamananda (presidente) and Pereira, Cl{\'a}udio
Solano (orientador) and Kayano, Mary Toshie (orientadora) and
Sansigolo, Cl{\'o}vis Angeli and Silva Dias, Pedro Leite da and
Campos, Edmo Jos{\'e} Dias",
copyholder = "SID/SCD",
englishtitle = "Variability and predictability of the sea surface temperature in
the Tropical Atlantic",
language = "pt",
pages = "224",
ibi = "6qtX3pFwXQZ3P8SECKy/zfQan",
url = "http://urlib.net/ibi/6qtX3pFwXQZ3P8SECKy/zfQan",
targetfile = "publicacao.pdf",
urlaccessdate = "23 maio 2024"
}