@InProceedings{Sansigolo:2015:CaClEs,
author = "Sansigolo, Cl{\'o}vis Angeli",
affiliation = "{Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais (INPE)}",
title = "Caracter{\'{\i}}sticas climatol{\'o}gicas da
esta{\c{c}}{\~a}o chuvosa em S{\~a}o Paulo",
booktitle = "P{\^o}steres",
year = "2015",
organization = "Simp{\'o}sio Internacional de Climatologia, 6. (SIC)",
keywords = "Esta{\c{c}}{\~a}o chuvosa, S{\~a}o Paulo, Rainy season,
S{\~a}o Paulo, Brazil.",
abstract = "Estat{\'{\i}}sticas de ordem s{\~a}o usadas para definir as
principais caracter{\'{\i}}sticas da esta{\c{c}}{\~a}o chuvosa
em S{\~a}o Paulo, que incluem seu in{\'{\i}}cio, fim e
dura{\c{c}}{\~a}o, al{\'e}m da distribui{\c{c}}{\~a}o das
quantidades de chuva e riscos de veranicos. As an{\'a}lises foram
feitas a partir dos registros de precipita{\c{c}}{\~a}o
di{\'a}ria em Piracicaba, localizada no interior o Estado, no
per{\'{\i}}odo de 1917 a 2014. As datas de in{\'{\i}}cio
obtidas foram: 20 de setembro para o in{\'{\i}}cio potencial e
12 de outubro para o efetivo, que {\'e} o in{\'{\i}}cio das
chuvas condicional a n{\~a}o ocorr{\^e}ncia de um veranico
consecutivo. O fim da esta{\c{c}}{\~a}o chuvosa foi definido
como sendo no dia 10 de mar{\c{c}}o e sua dura{\c{c}}{\~a}o
efetiva mediana foi de 152 dias. Constatou-se uma significativa
depend{\^e}ncia linear inversa (r=-0,74) entre o in{\'{\i}}cio
potencial e a dura{\c{c}}{\~a}o. As precipita{\c{c}}{\~o}es
esperadas por pentadas nos diversos n{\'{\i}}veis de
probabilidade foram obtidas atrav{\'e}s de ajustes de
distribui{\c{c}}{\~o}es gama. Tamb{\'e}m s{\~a}o apresentados
resultados sobre o risco de veranicos de 5 a 30 dias nos 30 dias
seguintes. Finalmente, s{\~a}o computadas as frequ{\^e}ncias
percentuais de eventos secos e chuvosos nas suas diferentes
intensidades, de leves a extremos, nas escalas de 1 a 12 meses,
usando o SPI. Conclue-se que estes resultados tem bastante
interesse pr{\'a}tico para fins de planejamento e
opera{\c{c}}{\~a}o de sistemas de recursos h{\'{\i}}dricos
para fins hidro e agrometeorol{\'o}gicos. ABSTRACT: Order
statistics were used to define the main features of the rainy
season in S{\~a}o Paulo, Brazil, including their start, end, and
duration, in addition to the distribution of quantities of rain
and risk of dry spells. The analysis was performed from daily
rainfall records in Piracicaba, located inside the State, in the
period of 1917 to 2014. The obtained start dates were: September
20 for the early potential and October 12 for effective one, which
is the start of rains conditional to a non-occurrence of one
consecutive dry spell. The end of rains was defined as being the
day March 10, and your effective average duration was 152 days.
There was a significant inverse linear dependence (r = -0.74)
between the start and the duration. Precipitation expected by
pentads in the various levels of probability were obtained through
adjustments to gamma distributions. Are also presented findings on
the risk of 5 to 30 days dry spells in the following 30 days.
Finally, the relative frequencies of rainy and dry events in their
different intensities from light to extremes, on the scales of 1
to 12 months, are computed using the SPI. It is concluded that
these results have great practical interest for design and
operation of water resources systems for hydro and
agrometeorological purposes.",
conference-location = "Natal, RN",
conference-year = "13-16 out.",
urlaccessdate = "03 jun. 2024"
}