@Article{LoweCBCCCRBSR:2016:EvPrDe,
author = "Lowe, Rachel and Coelho, Caio Augusto dos Santos and Barcellos,
Christovam and Carvalho, Marilia S{\'a} and Cat{\~a}o, Rafael de
Castro and Coelho, Giovanini E. and Ramalho, Walter Massa and
Bailey, Trevor C. and Stephenson, David B. and Rodo, Xavier",
affiliation = "{Institut Catal{\`a}} and {Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas
Espaciais (INPE)} and {Funda{\c{c}}{\~a}o Oswaldo Cruz} and
{Funda{\c{c}}{\~a}o Oswaldo Cruz} and {Institut Catal{\`a}} and
{Minist{\'e}rio da Sa{\'u}de} and {Universidade de
Bras{\'{\i}}lia (UnB)} and {University of Exeter} and
{University of Exeter} and {Institut Catal{\`a}}",
title = "Evaluating probabilistic dengue risk forecasts from a prototype
early warning system for Brazil",
journal = "Elife",
year = "2016",
volume = "5",
pages = "e11285",
month = "Feb.",
abstract = "Recently, a prototype dengue early warning system was developed to
produce probabilistic forecasts of dengue risk three months ahead
of the 2014 World Cup in Brazil. Here, we evaluate the categorical
dengue forecasts across all microregions in Brazil, using dengue
cases reported in June 2014 to validate the model. We also compare
the forecast model framework to a null model, based on seasonal
averages of previously observed dengue incidence. When considering
the ability of the two models to predict high dengue risk across
Brazil, the forecast model produced more hits and fewer missed
events than the null model, with a hit rate of 57% for the
forecast model compared to 33% for the null model. This early
warning model framework may be useful to public health services,
not only ahead of mass gatherings, but also before the peak dengue
season each year, to control potentially explosive dengue
epidemics.",
doi = "10.7554/eLife.11285",
url = "http://dx.doi.org/10.7554/eLife.11285",
issn = "2050-084X",
language = "en",
targetfile = "Lowe_evaluationg.pdf",
urlaccessdate = "03 jun. 2024"
}