@MastersThesis{Freire:2014:CaAvSi,
author = "Freire, Julliana Larise Mendon{\c{c}}a",
title = "Calibra{\c{c}}{\~a}o e avalia{\c{c}}{\~a}o de um sistema
regional de previs{\~a}o clim{\'a}tica sazonal para a
Am{\'e}rica do Sul durante o per{\'{\i}}odo mar{\c{c}}o-maio",
school = "Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais (INPE)",
year = "2014",
address = "S{\~a}o Jos{\'e} dos Campos",
month = "2014-05-16",
keywords = "calibra{\c{c}}{\~a}o, downscaling, nordeste do Brasil,
previs{\~a}o sazonal, calibration, downcaling, northeast of
Brazil, seasonal forecast.",
abstract = "As previs{\~o}es clim{\'a}ticas sazonais t{\^e}m
contribu{\'{\i}}do efetivamente para o planejamento de
atividades de diversos setores da sociedade, tais como, energia,
agricultura e sa{\'u}de. A necessidade de um maior detalhamento
das previs{\~o}es, atrav{\'e}s da diminui{\c{c}}{\~a}o da
escala (ou aumento da resolu{\c{c}}{\~a}o) espacial da
informa{\c{c}}{\~a}o clim{\'a}tica, tem concentrado nos
{\'u}ltimos anos esfor{\c{c}}os cient{\'{\i}}ficos em
v{\'a}rias regi{\~o}es do globo. A aplica{\c{c}}{\~a}o da
t{\'e}cnica de redu{\c{c}}{\~a}o de escala atrav{\'e}s da
modelagem din{\^a}mica regional, conhecida como
\emph{downscaling} din{\^a}mico, vem sendo utilizada com esse
objetivo. Desta forma, o presente trabalho tem como objetivo
calibrar e avaliar a destreza do modelo regional atmosf{\'e}rico
\emph{Brazilian developments on the Regional Atmospheric Modeling
System} (BRAMS) aninhado unidirecionalmente ao Modelo de
Circula{\c{c}}{\~a}o Geral Atmosf{\'e}rico (MCGA) do Centro de
Previs{\~a}o de Tempo e Estudos Clim{\'a}ticos (CPTEC) em prever
a variabilidade clim{\'a}tica dos padr{\~o}es atmosf{\'e}ricos
dominantes sobre a Am{\'e}rica do Sul (AS), para o trimestre
mar{\c{c}}o-abril-maio (MAM), que representa o pico da
esta{\c{c}}{\~a}o chuvosa da regi{\~a}o Nordeste do Brasil
(NEB) durante o per{\'{\i}}odo de 1979 a 2010. As previs{\~o}es
com o BRAMS foram produzidas utilizando um conjunto de 10 membros
na resolu{\c{c}}{\~a}o espacial de aproximadamente 30 km de
latitude por 30 km de longitude, tendo como condi{\c{c}}{\~o}es
de contorno a temperatura da superf{\'{\i}}cie do mar persistida
e a umidade do solo climatol{\'o}gica. Este trabalho trata-se de
uma iniciativa pioneira de avalia{\c{c}}{\~a}o sistem{\'a}tica
e comparativa de um modelo global e um modelo regional para a
Am{\'e}rica do Sul, ambos os modelos configurados em modo de
previs{\~a}o clim{\'a}tica sazonal por conjunto (10 membros)
rodados por um longo per{\'{\i}}odo (32 anos, 1979-2010),
reproduzindo assim as mesmas condi{\c{c}}{\~o}es encontradas no
ambiente operacional de previs{\~a}o clim{\'a}tica. Ap{\'o}s o
processo de calibra{\c{c}}{\~a}o, o modelo BRAMS conseguiu
capturar o padr{\~a}o de precipita{\c{c}}{\~a}o associada aos
eventos clim{\'a}ticos extremos, como a redu{\c{c}}{\~a}o
(aumento) da precipita{\c{c}}{\~a}o principalmente no leste da
regi{\~a}o Norte e NEB e o aumento (redu{\c{c}}{\~a}o) de
precipita{\c{c}}{\~a}o na regi{\~a}o Sul durante o evento de El
Niņo de 1983 (La Niņa de 1989). Os resultados mostraram que
atrav{\'e}s da t{\'e}cnica de \emph{downscaling} o modelo
regional BRAMS conseguiu reproduzir o padr{\~a}o espacial da
precipita{\c{c}}{\~a}o e temperatura e as principais
caracter{\'{\i}}sticas de circula{\c{c}}{\~a}o, durante o pico
da esta{\c{c}}{\~a}o chuvosa do NEB. As an{\'a}lises das
composi{\c{c}}{\~o}es de El Niņo e La Niņa mostraram que o
modelo regional representou razoavelmente bem o padr{\~a}o
an{\^o}malo das vari{\'a}veis estudadas quando comparado aos
padr{\~o}es observados. O uso do modelo regional BRAMS resultou
em melhorias na previs{\~a}o do sinal das anomalias de
precipita{\c{c}}{\~a}o sobre os pa{\'{\i}}ses da costa Oeste e
Norte da AS (Bol{\'{\i}}via, Peru, Col{\^o}mbia e Venezuela),
centro-leste da Argentina e sobre o Estado do Acre. Sobre a
regi{\~a}o Nordeste do Brasil ambos os modelos (BRAMS e MCGA)
apresentaram desempenho semelhante nas previs{\~o}es de anomalias
de precipita{\c{c}}{\~a}o. As correla{\c{c}}{\~o}es de
anomalia de temperatura utilizando o conjunto de previs{\~o}es do
BRAMS possuem valores mais expressivos do que as
correla{\c{c}}{\~o}es resultantes do MCGA, principalmente sobre
a regi{\~a}o Norte do Brasil e sobre o Peru. Erros
sistem{\'a}ticos foram verificados em algumas regi{\~o}es da AS,
associados as parametriza{\c{c}}{\~o}es f{\'{\i}}sicas e
condi{\c{c}}{\~o}es inicias e de contorno aqui utilizados,
sugerindo a necessidade de realizar ajustes nas
configura{\c{c}}{\~o}es e parametriza{\c{c}}{\~o}es do modelo
em futuras vers{\~o}es para a melhoria da qualidade das
previs{\~o}es. ABSTRACT: Seasonal climate predictions have
effectively contributed to activities planning in various societal
sectors, such as energy, agriculture and health. The need for more
detailed forecasts by increasing climate information spatial
resolution has focused research efforts in various regions of the
globe in recent years. The application of the downscaling
technique through regional dynamic modeling, known as dynamical
downscaling, has been used for this purpose. This study aims to
calibrate and evaluate the skill of the regional model Brazilian
developments on the Regional Atmospheric Modeling System (BRAMS)
nested unidirectionally with the Atmospheric General Circulation
Model (AGCM) of the Center for Weather Forecast and Climate
Studies (CPTEC), in predicting climate variability of the dominant
climate patterns over South America (SA). The study was performed
for the March-April-May (MAM) period, which represents the peak of
the rainy season in Northeast Brazil (NEB) during the period from
1979 to 2010.The predictions with the BRAMS were produced using a
set of 10 members with spatial resolution of 30 km by 30 km in
latitude and longitude, having the persisted sea surface
temperatures and climatological soil moisture as boundary
conditions. This work is a pioneering initiative performing a
systematic comparative evaluation of a global model and a regional
model for South America. Both models were configured in ensembles
(10 members) seasonal climate forecast mode and integrated during
a long period (32 years, 1979-2010), thus reproducing the same
conditions found in the climate prediction operational
environment. After the calibration process BRAMS was able to
capture rainfall patterns associated to extreme climate events,
such as the decrease (increase) in precipitation over the eastern
portion of North region and over the Northeast region of Brazil,
and increase (decrease) in precipitation over the Southern region
of Brazil during the 1983 El Niņo (1989 La Niņa) event. The
results showed that BRAMS was able to reproduce the spatial using
the technique of downscaling the patterns precipitation and
temperature and the main circulation features over South America,
during the peak of NEB rainy season. El Niņo and La Niņa composite
analyses showed that the regional model represented reasonably
well the anomalous patterns of the studied variables when compared
to the observed. The use of the regional model BRAMS resulted in
improvements in precipitation anomaly forecast signal over of
western and northern coast of SA (Bolivia, Peru, Colombia and
Venezuela), over east-central Argentina and the over State of Acre
over the Northeast region of Brazil both models (BRAMS and AGCM)
showed similar performance when forecasting precipitation
anomalies. As for temperature anomaly forecast BRAMS showed higher
performance, given by the correlation coefficient between forecast
and observed anomalies over the period 1979-2010, than the AGCM,
particularly over northern Brazil and Peru. Systematic forecast
errors were found in some regions associated to the physical
parameterizations and initial and boundary conditions used in this
study suggesting the need for adjustments in the model
configuration and parameterization in future model version with
the aim of improving the quality of forecasts.",
committee = "Herdies, Dirceu Luis (presidente) and Freitas, Saulo Ribeiro de
(orientador) and Coelho, Caio Augusto dos Santos (orientador) and
Rivero, Silvio Nilo Figueroa and Souza, Enio Pereira de",
englishtitle = "Calibration and evaluation of a regional seasonal climate forecast
system for Sul America during the march-may period",
language = "pt",
pages = "131",
ibi = "8JMKD3MGP8W/3G5UGHP",
url = "http://urlib.net/ibi/8JMKD3MGP8W/3G5UGHP",
targetfile = "publicacao.pdf",
urlaccessdate = "16 jun. 2024"
}