@Article{MarengoRustPenaReno:2010:Pa2:Hi,
               author = "Marengo, Jos{\'e} Antonio and Rusticucci, Matilde and Penalba, 
                         Olga and Renom, Madeleine",
          affiliation = "{Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais (INPE/CPTEC)} and 
                         Departamento de Ciencias de la Atm{\'o}sfera y los Oc{\'e}anos 
                         FCEN Universidad de Buenos Aires, Buenos Aires, Argentina and 
                         Departamento de Ciencias de la Atm{\'o}sfera y los Oc{\'e}anos 
                         FCEN Universidad de Buenos Aires, Buenos Aires, Argentina and 
                         4Unidad Ciencias de la Atm{\'o}sfera, FCIEN, Universidad de la 
                         Republica, Montevideo, Uruguay",
                title = "An intercomparison of observed and simulated extreme rainfall and 
                         temperature events during the last half of the twentieth century: 
                         part 2: historical trends",
              journal = "Climatic Change",
                 year = "2010",
               volume = "98",
               number = "3-4 Special Issue",
                pages = "509--529",
                month = "feb",
             keywords = "atlantic convergence zone, sea surface temperature, South America, 
                         climate change, precipitation events, Argentina, variability, 
                         circulation, Brazil.",
             abstract = "Projections of changes in climate extremes are critical to 
                         assessing the potential impacts of climate change on human and 
                         natural systems. Therefore, especial care should be put on the 
                         validation of those extremes derived for present climate in both 
                         spatial and temporal variability. We analyze historical 
                         simulations of three such indicators as derived from seven GCMs 
                         contributing to the Fourth Assessment Report of the 
                         Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC-AR4) for the XX 
                         century. Our focus is on the consensus in the geographical and 
                         temporal variability of temperature and rainfall extreme trends 
                         between observations and the GCMs, in terms of direction and 
                         significance of the changes at the scale of South America south of 
                         10 oS. The climate extremes described by the 3 indices include 
                         warm nights, heavy rainfall amounts and dry spells. The observed 
                         historical trends in extremes generally agree with previous 
                         observational studies that used other indicators of extremes, and 
                         the favorable comparison in the warm nights and extreme rainfall 
                         in some regions provides a basic sense of reliability for the GCM 
                         simulations. For any specific temperature index, minor differences 
                         appear in the spatial distribution of the changes across models in 
                         some regions, while substantial differences appear in regions in 
                         interior tropical and subtropical South America. The differences 
                         are in the relative magnitude of the trends. Consensus and 
                         significance are less strong when regional patterns are 
                         considered, with the exception of the La Plata Basin, where 
                         observed and simulated trends in warm nights and extreme rainfall 
                         are evident. This analysis provides a first overview of simulated 
                         trends in extremes for present climates, and further work is 
                         focused on projected changes in climate extremes from the IPCC-AR4 
                         models.",
                  doi = "10.1007/s10584-009-9743-7",
                  url = "http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s10584-009-9743-7",
                 issn = "0165-0009",
             language = "en",
           targetfile = "Marengo Intercomparison.pdf",
        urlaccessdate = "16 jun. 2024"
}