@InProceedings{SilvestriVeraLiebGonz:2006:PrVaSo,
               author = "Silvestri, Gabriel E. and Vera, Carolina S. and Liebmann, Brant 
                         and Gonzalez, Paula",
          affiliation = "CIMA/DCAO, University of Buenos Aires-CONICET (Silvestri, Vera, 
                         Gonzalez) and NOAA/CIRES Climate Diagnostics Center, Boulder, 
                         Colorado, USA (Liebmann)",
                title = "Precipitation variability in South America from IPCC-AR4 models. 
                         Part I: Climatology",
            booktitle = "Proceedings...",
                 year = "2006",
               editor = "Vera, Carolina and Nobre, Carlos",
                pages = "421--427",
         organization = "International Conference on Southern Hemisphere Meteorology and 
                         Oceanography, 8. (ICSHMO).",
            publisher = "American Meteorological Society (AMS)",
              address = "45 Beacon Hill Road, Boston, MA, USA",
             keywords = "climate change, climatology, precipitation, South America.",
             abstract = "A subset of the climate simulations of the 20th century (20c3m) 
                         for the IPCC Fourth Assessment Report (AR4) are being analyzed to 
                         assess the ability of the models in reproducing the observed 
                         precipitation climatology in South America during the period 
                         1979-1999. In addition, the changes of such climatology in a 
                         climate change scenario (SRESA1B) over the period 2070-2099 are 
                         also discussed. A total of 23 runs from 8 different models (CNRM, 
                         GFDL-CM2.0, GISS-EH, IPSL-CM4, MIROC-3.2, ECHAM5, MRI2.3.2, 
                         UKMO-HadCM3) were considered. Climatological mean seasonal 
                         precipitation from 20c3m model simulations were compared with 
                         those resulted from the Climate Prediction Center Merged Analysis 
                         of Precipitation (CMAP) dataset. For those models that an ensemble 
                         of runs are available, climatology were first computed per 
                         individual run and then averaged over all runs available for each 
                         model. Results show that models are able to reproduce the main 
                         features of the precipitation seasonal cycle over South America 
                         like the precipitation migration from central to northwestern 
                         South America during the cold season and the corresponding 
                         development over the tropical region during the warm season. Also, 
                         the seasonal evolution of the precipitation in the SACZ region is 
                         reasonably represented by the models. Although, they have 
                         deficiencies in quantifying and geographically positioning maximum 
                         precipitation values particularly those observed over the Amazon 
                         Basin, SACZ, and La Plata Basin. In addition, some models have 
                         particular problems in the Andes region, reproducing there quite 
                         larger amounts of precipitation than those observed. The 
                         low-resolution in which the Andes is represented, also affects the 
                         spatial precipitation distribution simulated by some models. 
                         Regarding the precipitation interannual variability, while some 
                         models exhibit larger variability than observed over tropical 
                         South America, the variability represented by others is quite low. 
                         Moreover, most of the models have serious deficiencies in 
                         representing the mean precipitation maximum observed over 
                         southeastern South America during winter and its associated 
                         variability. The precipitation changes projected by the SRESA1B 
                         simulations for the period 2070-2099, differ considerable among 
                         models. Nevertheless, some of them agree in showing an increment 
                         of precipitation over southeastern South America and some 
                         reduction over the Amazon Basin..",
  conference-location = "Foz do Igua{\c{c}}u",
      conference-year = "24-28 Apr. 2006",
             language = "en",
         organisation = "American Meteorological Society (AMS)",
                  ibi = "cptec.inpe.br/adm_conf/2005/10.28.15.30",
                  url = "http://urlib.net/ibi/cptec.inpe.br/adm_conf/2005/10.28.15.30",
           targetfile = "421-428.pdf",
                 type = "Climate change in the SH",
        urlaccessdate = "15 jun. 2024"
}