@InProceedings{SilvestriVeraLiebGonz:2006:PrVaSo,
author = "Silvestri, Gabriel E. and Vera, Carolina S. and Liebmann, Brant
and Gonzalez, Paula",
affiliation = "CIMA/DCAO, University of Buenos Aires-CONICET (Silvestri, Vera,
Gonzalez) and NOAA/CIRES Climate Diagnostics Center, Boulder,
Colorado, USA (Liebmann)",
title = "Precipitation variability in South America from IPCC-AR4 models.
Part I: Climatology",
booktitle = "Proceedings...",
year = "2006",
editor = "Vera, Carolina and Nobre, Carlos",
pages = "421--427",
organization = "International Conference on Southern Hemisphere Meteorology and
Oceanography, 8. (ICSHMO).",
publisher = "American Meteorological Society (AMS)",
address = "45 Beacon Hill Road, Boston, MA, USA",
keywords = "climate change, climatology, precipitation, South America.",
abstract = "A subset of the climate simulations of the 20th century (20c3m)
for the IPCC Fourth Assessment Report (AR4) are being analyzed to
assess the ability of the models in reproducing the observed
precipitation climatology in South America during the period
1979-1999. In addition, the changes of such climatology in a
climate change scenario (SRESA1B) over the period 2070-2099 are
also discussed. A total of 23 runs from 8 different models (CNRM,
GFDL-CM2.0, GISS-EH, IPSL-CM4, MIROC-3.2, ECHAM5, MRI2.3.2,
UKMO-HadCM3) were considered. Climatological mean seasonal
precipitation from 20c3m model simulations were compared with
those resulted from the Climate Prediction Center Merged Analysis
of Precipitation (CMAP) dataset. For those models that an ensemble
of runs are available, climatology were first computed per
individual run and then averaged over all runs available for each
model. Results show that models are able to reproduce the main
features of the precipitation seasonal cycle over South America
like the precipitation migration from central to northwestern
South America during the cold season and the corresponding
development over the tropical region during the warm season. Also,
the seasonal evolution of the precipitation in the SACZ region is
reasonably represented by the models. Although, they have
deficiencies in quantifying and geographically positioning maximum
precipitation values particularly those observed over the Amazon
Basin, SACZ, and La Plata Basin. In addition, some models have
particular problems in the Andes region, reproducing there quite
larger amounts of precipitation than those observed. The
low-resolution in which the Andes is represented, also affects the
spatial precipitation distribution simulated by some models.
Regarding the precipitation interannual variability, while some
models exhibit larger variability than observed over tropical
South America, the variability represented by others is quite low.
Moreover, most of the models have serious deficiencies in
representing the mean precipitation maximum observed over
southeastern South America during winter and its associated
variability. The precipitation changes projected by the SRESA1B
simulations for the period 2070-2099, differ considerable among
models. Nevertheless, some of them agree in showing an increment
of precipitation over southeastern South America and some
reduction over the Amazon Basin..",
conference-location = "Foz do Igua{\c{c}}u",
conference-year = "24-28 Apr. 2006",
language = "en",
organisation = "American Meteorological Society (AMS)",
ibi = "cptec.inpe.br/adm_conf/2005/10.28.15.30",
url = "http://urlib.net/ibi/cptec.inpe.br/adm_conf/2005/10.28.15.30",
targetfile = "421-428.pdf",
type = "Climate change in the SH",
urlaccessdate = "29 jun. 2024"
}