@InProceedings{BidegainCami:2006:PeGCCl,
               author = "Bidegain, Mario and Camilloni, Ines",
          affiliation = "{Universidad de la Republica - URUGUAY} and {Universidad de Buenos 
                         Aires - ARGENTINA}",
                title = "Performance of GCMs and Climate Future Scenarios for Southeastern 
                         South America",
            booktitle = "Proceedings...",
                 year = "2006",
               editor = "Vera, Carolina and Nobre, Carlos",
                pages = "223--226",
         organization = "International Conference on Southern Hemisphere Meteorology and 
                         Oceanography, 8. (ICSHMO).",
            publisher = "American Meteorological Society (AMS)",
              address = "45 Beacon Hill Road, Boston, MA, USA",
             keywords = "Climate Change scenarios, performance of GCMs, Southeastern South 
                         America.",
             abstract = "In order to evaluate the differences between the observed climate 
                         and the climate simulations with Global Climate Models (GCMs), in 
                         the Southeastern South America region, we selected six available 
                         runs from IPCC Distribution Data Center, using socioeconomic 
                         SRES-A2 and B2 forcing scenario. The models are: HadCM3, 
                         ECHAM4/OPYC3, CGCM2, NCAR-PCM1, GFDL R30 and CSIRO Mark 2. We have 
                         compared sea level pressure, surface air temperature and 
                         precipitation from the models, against gridded observed climate 
                         fields (University of Delaware and NCAR reanalysis), trying to 
                         estimate regional performance of the control simulations (baseline 
                         climate scenarios). We assume that the models that better simulate 
                         the current regional climate in their control experiments are 
                         likely to be more reliable in their simulations of regional 
                         climate under changes of greenhouse gases concentrations. The 
                         comparison between the monthly and annual SLP fields shows that 
                         only four models (HADCM3, CSIRO-mk2, ECHAM4, GFDL-R30) have an 
                         acceptable agreement with the observed SLP field and are able to 
                         represent the position and intensity of the pressure systems and 
                         the annual cycle. This agreement is a little poor in the austral 
                         winter months (July to September) and show good correlation with 
                         observed values during the austral summer (December to March). 
                         Comparison for precipitation was performed only for the four 
                         models with best agreement in the SLP fields: HADCM3, 
                         ECHAM4/OPYC3, CSIRO-mk2 and GFDL-R30. In all cases, precipitation 
                         is largely underestimated in the R{\'{\i}}o de la Plata basin. 
                         The comparison between the monthly and annual temperature fields 
                         shows that in general all the models have an acceptable agreement 
                         with the observed fields, but the common feature of the models is 
                         that they overestimate over the same continental areas were 
                         underestimate precipitation (northeastern Argentina and southern 
                         Brazil). The future climate change scenarios, for precipitation 
                         and temperature, over Southern cone of South America were 
                         constructed for 2020s, 2050s and 2080s, estimated by HADCM3 and 
                         ECHAM4 models forced by SRES A2 and B2 socioeconomic scenario..",
  conference-location = "Foz do Igua{\c{c}}u",
      conference-year = "24-28 Apr. 2006",
             language = "en",
         organisation = "American Meteorological Society (AMS)",
                  ibi = "cptec.inpe.br/adm_conf/2005/10.31.12.50",
                  url = "http://urlib.net/ibi/cptec.inpe.br/adm_conf/2005/10.31.12.50",
           targetfile = "223-226.pdf",
                 type = "Climate change in the SH",
        urlaccessdate = "29 jun. 2024"
}