@InProceedings{NuņezSolmCabr:2006:ClChSc,
author = "Nuņez, Mario N{\'e}stor and Solman, Silvina and Cabr{\'e},
Mar{\'{\i}}a Fernanda",
affiliation = "CIMA (CONICET/UBA) and Departamento de Ciencias de la
Atm{\'o}sfera y los Oc{\'e}anos (UBA) (Nuņez, Solman.
Cabr{\'e})",
title = "Mean climate and annual cycle in a regional climate change
experiment over Southern South America. II: climate change
scenarios (2081-2090)",
booktitle = "Proceedings...",
year = "2006",
editor = "Vera, Carolina and Nobre, Carlos",
pages = "325--331",
organization = "International Conference on Southern Hemisphere Meteorology and
Oceanography, 8. (ICSHMO).",
publisher = "American Meteorological Society (AMS)",
address = "45 Beacon Hill Road, Boston, MA, USA",
keywords = "climate change scenarios, dynamical downscaling, regional climate
change.",
abstract = "A basic analysis is presented for a regional climate change
simulations that were conducted by the Centro de Investigaciones
del Mar y la Atm{\'o}sfera (CIMA) as a contribution to the
Ar-gentinean 2nd National Communication of Climate Change project.
For the driven global model HadAM3P, a 10-year control run and two
10-year scenario runs (based on the SRES A2 and B2 emission
scenarios) were made with MM5 regional model. There are few
quanti-tative differences between both emission scenarios. The
simulated changes are larger for the A2 than the B2 scenario,
although with few qualitative differences. In the two scenario
runs, the warming in southern Brazil, Paraguay, Bolivia and
northeastern Argentina are larger in winter and mainly in spring.
In Paraguay, southern Brazil and northern Argentina the warm-ing
peaks in spring when it locally reaches 5.5 ° C in the simulation
for the A2 scenario. The B2 simulation shows a general increase in
precipitation in southern Brazil, Paraguay, Bolivia, Uruguay,
northern Argentina and northern Chile, with some decrease patches
in precipitation southern Brazil, northern Chile, southern Peru,
northwestern and northeastern Argentina and in the Patagonia. The
A2 simulation shows a similar geographical pattern of the changes
in precipitation, but with more extended areas with decrease in
precipitation mainly in Chile. Both simulations show a general
increase in precipitation in northern and central Argentina
especially in summer and fall and a general decrease in
precipitation in winter and spring. In fall the simulations agree
on a general decrease in precipitation in southern Brazil. This
re-flects changes in the atmospheric circulation during winter and
spring. Changes in mean sea level pressure show a cell of
increasing pressure centered somewhere in the southern Atlantic
Ocean and southern Pacific Ocean, mainly during summer and fall in
the Atlantic and in spring in the Pacific. In relation to the
pressure distribution in the control run, this indicates a
southward extension of the summer mean Atlantic and Pacific
subtropical highs.",
conference-location = "Foz do Igua{\c{c}}u",
conference-year = "24-28 Apr. 2006",
language = "en",
organisation = "American Meteorological Society (AMS)",
ibi = "cptec.inpe.br/adm_conf/2005/10.31.18.34.58",
url = "http://urlib.net/ibi/cptec.inpe.br/adm_conf/2005/10.31.18.34.58",
targetfile = "325-332.pdf",
type = "Climate change in the SH",
urlaccessdate = "16 jun. 2024"
}