@InProceedings{TorresMare:2011:UnPrTe,
               author = "Torres, Roger. R and Marengo, Jos{\'e}. A",
          affiliation = "{Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais (INPE)} and {Instituto 
                         Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais (INPE)}",
                title = "Uncertainty and Probability of Temperature Change Over South 
                         America by the end of the twenty-first century",
                 year = "2011",
         organization = "Simp{\'o}sio Internacional de Climatologia: Mudan{\c{c}}as 
                         Clim{\'a}ticas e seus impactos nas {\'a}reas urbanas, 4.",
            publisher = "SBMET",
             keywords = "Proje{\c{c}}{\~o}es Clim{\'a}ticas.",
             abstract = "Este estudo analisa as incertezas e probabilidades envolvidas nas 
                         proje{\c{c}}{\~o}es de mudan{\c{c}}as da temperatura do ar 
                         {\`a} superf{\'{\i}}cie sobre a Am{\'e}rica do Sul para o 
                         final do s{\'e}culo XXI. Simula{\c{c}}{\~o}es e 
                         proje{\c{c}}{\~o}es clim{\'a}ticas no cen{\'a}rio futuro de 
                         emiss{\~o}es SRES A2 geradas por in{\'u}meros Modelos Globais 
                         Clim{\'a}ticos foram utilizados e o m{\'e}todo Reliability 
                         Ensemble Averaging (REA) foi aplicado. O m{\'e}todo REA nos 
                         permite estimar, atrav{\'e}s de uma m{\'e}dia ponderada de 
                         modelos, um intervalo de incerteza e uma avalia{\c{c}}{\~a}o 
                         probabil{\'{\i}}stica das proje{\c{c}}{\~o}es clim{\'a}ticas. 
                         Os resultados mostram que a temperatura m{\'e}dia REA foi 
                         ligeiramente menor (~8%) sobre toda Am{\'e}rica do Sul quando 
                         comparado com a m{\'e}dia simples (ou seja, quando 
                         atribu{\'{\i}}mos o mesmo peso para todos os membros do 
                         conjunto). A probabilidade de um aumento de temperatura acima de 
                         2\οC apresenta-se extremamente alta (>80%) para todo o 
                         continente e em todas as esta{\c{c}}{\~o}es, e uma alta 
                         probabilidade (>50%) de exceder 4\οC foi encontrada no 
                         noroeste da Am{\'e}rica do Sul, bacia Amaz{\^o}nica e Nordeste 
                         brasileiro para 2071-2100. ABSTRACT This study assess the 
                         uncertainties and probabilities involved in projections of surface 
                         air temperature change over the South America by the end of the 
                         twenty-first century. Climate simulations and projections in the 
                         SRES A2 emission scenarios generated by innumerous Global Climate 
                         Models were used and the Reliability Ensemble Averaging (REA) 
                         approach was applied. REA allows the estimation, through a 
                         weighted mean of models, of an uncertainty range and a 
                         probabilistic evaluation of climate outcomes. Results show that 
                         the REA mean temperature change was slightly smaller (~8%) over 
                         the whole of South America when compared to the simple ensemble 
                         mean (i.e. when assigning the same weight to all ensemble 
                         members). A temperature increase exceeding 2\ο C was found 
                         to have an extremely high likelihood (>80%) for the entire South 
                         America in all seasons, and a high likelihood (>50%) of exceeding 
                         4\οC was found over Northwest South America, Amazon basin 
                         and Northeast Brazil by 2071-2100.",
  conference-location = "Jo{\~a}o Pessoa",
      conference-year = "16 a 19de outubro de 2011",
           targetfile = "Torres; Marengo - uncertainty and probability.PDF",
        urlaccessdate = "15 jun. 2024"
}