@Article{MarengoARACVTSF:2010:InScTh,
author = "Marengo, Jose A and Ambrizzi, Tercio and Rocha, Rosmeri P. da and
Alves, Lincoln M and Cuadra, Santiago V and Valverde, Maria C. and
Torres, Roger R. and Santos, Daniel C. and Ferraz, Simone E. T.",
affiliation = "{Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais (INPE)}",
title = "Future change of climate in South America in the late twenty-first
century: intercomparison of scenarios from three regional climate
models",
journal = "Climate Dynamics",
year = "2010",
volume = "35",
number = "6 Special Supplement",
pages = "1089 - 1113",
month = "0930-7575",
keywords = "Regional climate models, Climate change, Rainfall, Temperature,
SEA-SURFACE TEMPERATURE, MESOSCALE ETA-MODEL, BAYESIAN STATISTICS,
IPCC SIMULATIONS, SOLAR-RADIATION, NEURAL-NETWORKS,
HIGH-RESOLUTION, SEASONAL CYCLE, MEAN STATE, PART I.",
abstract = "Regional climate change projections for the last half of the
twenty-first century have been produced for South America, as part
of the CREAS (Cenarios REgionalizados de Clima Futuro da America
do Sul) regional project. Three regional climate models RCMs (Eta
CCS, RegCM3 and HadRM3P) were nested within the HadAM3P global
model. The simulations cover a 30-year period representing present
climate (1961-1990) and projections for the IPCC A2 high emission
scenario for 2071-2100. The focus was on the changes in the mean
circulation and surface variables, in particular, surface air
temperature and precipitation. There is a consistent pattern of
changes in circulation, rainfall and temperatures as depicted by
the three models. The HadRM3P shows intensification and a more
southward position of the subtropical Pacific high, while a
pattern of intensification/weakening during summer/winter is
projected by the Eta CCS/RegCM3. There is a tendency for a
weakening of the subtropical westerly jet from the Eta CCS and
HadRM3P, consistent with other studies. There are indications that
regions such of Northeast Brazil and central-eastern and southern
Amazonia may experience rainfall deficiency in the future, while
the Northwest coast of Peru-Ecuador and northern Argentina may
experience rainfall excesses in a warmer future, and these changes
may vary with the seasons. The three models show warming in the A2
scenario stronger in the tropical region, especially in the 5A
degrees N-15A degrees S band, both in summer and especially in
winter, reaching up to 6-8A degrees C warmer than in the present.
In southern South America, the warming in summer varies between 2
and 4A degrees C and in winter between 3 and 5A degrees C in the
same region from the 3 models. These changes are consistent with
changes in low level circulation from the models, and they are
comparable with changes in rainfall and temperature extremes
reported elsewhere. In summary, some aspects of projected future
climate change are quite robust across this set of model runs for
some regions, as the Northwest coast of Peru-Ecuador, northern
Argentina, Eastern Amazonia and Northeast Brazil, whereas for
other regions they are less robust as in Pantanal region of West
Central and southeastern Brazil.",
doi = "10.1007/s00382-009-0721-6",
url = "http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s00382-009-0721-6",
issn = "0930-7575",
language = "en",
urlaccessdate = "16 jun. 2024"
}