@InProceedings{MarengoNobr:2002:AsClCh,
author = "Marengo, Jose A. and Nobre, Carlos Afonso",
title = "Regional aspects of the IPCC Third Assessment Report. Assessment
of climate change scenarios due to increase greenhouse gases in
the Amazon Basin",
year = "2002",
organization = "International LBA Scientific Conference, 2.",
keywords = "METEOROLOGIA.",
abstract = "The release of the IPCC Third Assessment Report has brought to
attention the possible impacts of the increase in the
concentration of greenhouse gases in climate change in the Amazon
basin, beside the possible effect of regional deforestation on
climate. New models and new developments have allowed some new
insight on climate change scenarios in the Amazon region, as
compared to the Second Assessment report of IPCC released in 1996.
The four emissions scenarios were combined with low, medium and
high levels of {"}climate sensitivity{"} for all climate model
projections from the PCCDDC. The combination of 'low emissions +
low climate sensitivity' (B1)through to 'high emissions + high
climate sensitivity' (A2)produce a range of future global warming
and sea-level rise curves that span perhaps 90 per cent of likely
future climates. Projected regional changes include for A2
increases in temperature between 3 to 4C while B1 suggest changes
in 1-3 C, with the warming being more pronounced during winter
than in summer. Changes in precipitation are inconsistent for A2,
s howing increases of 5-10 percent during summer, while all year
long the changes vary from 0+10 percent whole for B1 changes in
projected rainfall varies from 0+5 percent . It is expected than
rainfall reductions forecasted by the IPCC would be in addition to
those expected possible due to deforestation, as proposed by
numerical experiments of deforestation. For the Amazon basin,
changes in temperature, precipitation and sea-level rise for
Century XXI, would affect the hydrological cycle (especially
evaporation)in the region, affecting biodiversity and natural
ecosystems, and agricultural activities, as well as extreme
weather events in the region, such as the passage of cold fronts
and the presence of dry spells and rainy days. These projections
exhibit a degree of uncertainty due the differences between
models, since some of them exhibit problems in representing the
summer-autumn rainfall maximum in northern-central Amazonia, and
the fact that these projections are at regional scale, with some
regional details missing since there is not an availability of
downscaled climate change scenarios valid for the different
sections of the basin.",
conference-location = "Manaus, Br",
conference-year = "7-10 July 2002",
label = "10237",
targetfile = "9318.pdf",
urlaccessdate = "16 jun. 2024"
}