@Article{ObregónMareNobr:2014:LoTrMe,
               author = "Obreg{\'o}n, Guillermo Oswaldo and Marengo, Jos{\'e} Antonio and 
                         Nobre, C. A.",
          affiliation = "{Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais (INPE)} and {Instituto 
                         Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais (INPE)} and Research and 
                         Development Policies and Programs Secretary, Ministry of Science, 
                         Technology and Innovation (SEPED/MCTI), Bloco E, 2 andar, Sala 
                         215, Esplanada dos MinisteriosBras{\'{\i}}lia-DF, Brazil",
                title = "Rainfall and climate variability: Long-term trends in the 
                         Metropolitan Area of S{\~a}o Paulo in the 20th century",
              journal = "Climate Research",
                 year = "2014",
               volume = "61",
               number = "2",
                pages = "93--107",
             abstract = "We investigated spatial-temporal variability and long-term trends 
                         of rainfall over the Metropolitan Area of S{\~a}o Paulo (MASP). 
                         Due to a lack of continuous and consistent rainfall observations 
                         in the MASP, a database for the spatial analysis was created from 
                         a composite of 94 stations, with daily rainfall data for 
                         1973-1997, plus data from the University of S{\~a}o Paulo's 
                         Institute of Geophysics and Astronomy (IAG/USP) station for 
                         1933-2011, as the base of the long-term variability analysis. It 
                         is shown that the seasonal and interannual rainfall variability 
                         result from underlying local influences and remote large-scale 
                         atmospheric dynamics. These effects appear to be more complex 
                         during the austral spring and fall seasons, and seem to determine 
                         the duration of the rainy period over the MASP. The intraseasonal 
                         (30-60 d) oscillation of rainfall does not exhibit any long-term 
                         modulation; interannual rainfall variability for 1975-1990 appears 
                         modulated by the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) scale (2-8 
                         yr). Nonetheless, there exists statistical evidence that the 
                         rainfall climate over the MASP had an abrupt change at the end of 
                         the 1950s, but the global climatic change that occurred in the 
                         middle of the 1970s is not evident. The progressive increase in 
                         the frequency of rainy days and total daily rainfall throughout 
                         the period of analysis are prominent factors in the trend of 
                         annual and seasonal rainfall. Furthermore, rainfall variability 
                         over the MASP may be modulated by the Southern Annular Mode (SAM), 
                         Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) and ENSO at seasonal scales, 
                         altering the normal progression of the seasonal rainfall cycle, 
                         while at interannual scales, each one of these patterns drives the 
                         rainfall variability, mainly when each pattern reaches its extreme 
                         value.",
                  doi = "10.3354/cr01241",
                  url = "http://dx.doi.org/10.3354/cr01241",
                 issn = "0936-577X",
                label = "scopus 2014-11 Obreg{\'o}nMareNobr:2014:LoTrMe",
             language = "en",
        urlaccessdate = "03 jun. 2024"
}