@MastersThesis{Silva:2010:ClVaMu,
author = "Silva, Leonardo Diogo da",
title = "Storm-track na Am{\'e}rica do Sul e vizinhan{\c{c}}as:
climatologia, variabilidade e mudan{\c{c}}as clim{\'a}ticas",
school = "Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais (INPE)",
year = "2010",
address = "S{\~a}o Jos{\'e} dos Campos",
month = "2010-03-31",
keywords = "mudan{\c{c}}as clim{\'a}ticas, oscila{\c{c}}{\~a}o
Ant{\'a}rtica, El Niņo oscila{\c{c}}{\~a}o sul, climatologia,
ciclones extratropicais, climate change, Antarctic oscillation, El
Niņo Southern oscillation, climatology, extratropical cyclones.",
abstract = "Este estudo apresenta uma climatologia de ciclones extratropicais
para a Am{\'e}rica do Sul (AS), Pen{\'{\i}}nsula Ant{\'a}rtica
e oceanos adjacentes nas esta{\c{c}}{\~o}es de inverno e
ver{\~a}o para o clima atual e proje{\c{c}}{\~o}es
clim{\'a}ticas para o fim deste s{\'e}culo. Aplicou-se um
m{\'e}todo objetivo e autom{\'a}tico de acompanhamento de
caracter{\'{\i}}sticas espec{\'{\i}}ficas em campos
meteorol{\'o}gicos {\`a}s rean{\'a}lises do {"}European Centre
for Medium Range Weather Forecast{"} (ECMWF) e {"}National Centers
for Environmental Prediction{"} (NCEP) para os per{\'{\i}}odos
de 1961 - 1990 e 1989 - 2008 e simula{\c{c}}{\~o}es do {"}World
Data Center for Climate{"} (WDC), para os per{\'{\i}}odos de
1961 - 1990 e 2071 - 2100 a fim de se apresentar
estat{\'{\i}}sticas relativas as {"}Storm- Tracks{"} (ST) e
mostrar suas intera{\c{c}}{\~o}es com fen{\^o}menos
oceano-atmosf{\'e}ricos de baixa freq{\"u}{\^e}ncia nos dias
atuais e em um futuro clim{\'a}tico de aquecimento global.
S{\~a}o observados dois centros com ciclog{\^e}nese marcante
sobre o litoral sudeste da AS e um sobre a Pen{\'{\i}}nsula
Ant{\'a}rtica para as duas esta{\c{c}}{\~o}es da climatologia
atual. Nota-se que a ST de ver{\~a}o distribui-se em uma faixa de
latitudes mais estreita que a da esta{\c{c}}{\~a}o mais fria e
que o inverno apresenta maior atividade cicl{\^o}nica.
Diagnostica-se que o sinal da Oscila{\c{c}}{\~a}o Ant{\'a}rtica
(OA) e do EI Niņo Oscila{\c{c}}{\~a}o Sul (ENOS) influenciam a
distribui{\c{c}}{\~a}o latitudinal e de intensidades m{\'e}dias
relacionadas a vorticidade relativa em ambas as
esta{\c{c}}{\~o}es, sendo a OA o principal modo de variabilidade
clim{\'a}tica atuante em latitudes m{\'e}dias e altas observado
neste trabalho. As proje{\c{c}}{\~o}es clim{\'a}ticas sugerem
um deslocamento das ST para latitudes mais altas e
redu{\c{c}}{\~a}o da quantidade de sistemas observados no
futuro. Foi observado que o deslocamento da regi{\~a}o de
baroclinia m{\'a}xima e a atua{\c{c}}{\~a}o do Modo Anular Sul
(MAS) foram determinantes na redistribui{\c{c}}{\~a}o da
atividade cicl{\^o}nica no cen{\'a}rio clim{\'a}tico futuro.
ABSTRACT: This study deals with an extratropical cyclone
climatology for South America (SA), Antarctic Peninsula and
adjacents oceans in the austral winter and summer seasons for the
current and future climate. An automatic and objective method to
monitoring specific features of meteorological fields of the
{"}European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecast{"}(ECMWF) and
{"}National Centers for Environmental Prediction{"}(NCEP)
reanalysis for the 1961 - 1990 and 1989 - 2008 periods and
simulations of the {"}World Data Center for Climate{"}(WDC) for
the 1961 - 1990 and 2071 - 2100 was applied in order to analyse
statistics on the {"}Storm - Tracks{"}(ST) and show their
interactions with low frequency ocean - atmospheric phenomena. The
results show two marked cyclogenesis centers over the southeastern
coast of SA and another one over the Antarctic Peninsula for both
seasons on current days. It is noted that the austral summer ST is
distributed in a latitudes range narrower than the cold season one
and that the austral winter period presents higher ciclonic
activity. It is diagnosed that the Antarctic Oscilation (AAO) or
Southern Annular Mode (SAM) and the EI Niņo Southern Oscilation
(ENSO) signals influence the latitudinal position and mean
intensities of relative vorticity in both seasons. Also MO is
characterized as the principal mode of climate variability in
middle and high latitudes. The climate projections results suggest
that the ST belt displace towards high latitudes and the number of
cyclones decreases in the future. The maximum baroclinic region
shifts southwards and the influence of the SAM seems very
important for the cyclonic activity redistribution of the future
climate scenario.",
committee = "Sansigolo, Cl{\'o}vis (presidente) and Ferreira, Nelson Jesus
(orientador) and Orsini, Jos{\'e} Ant{\^o}nio Marengo and
Mendes, David and Hodges, Kevin Ivan",
copyholder = "SID/SCD",
englishtitle = "Storm-tracks over South America and adjacent areas: climatology,
variability and climate change",
language = "pt",
pages = "110",
ibi = "8JMKD3MGP7W/375673B",
url = "http://urlib.net/ibi/8JMKD3MGP7W/375673B",
urlaccessdate = "29 jun. 2024"
}