@Article{Aubry-KientzRosCorWagHér:2019:TeRiWo,
               author = "Aubry-Kientz, M{\'e}laine and Rosse, Vivien and Cornu, Guillaume 
                         and Wagner, Fabien Hubert and H{\'e}rault, Bruno",
          affiliation = "{University Guyane} and {University Montpellier} and {University 
                         Montpellier} and {Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais 
                         (INPE)} and {University Montpellier}",
                title = "Temperature rising would slow down tropical forest dynamic in the 
                         Guiana Shield",
              journal = "Scientific Reports",
                 year = "2019",
               volume = "9",
                pages = "e10235",
                month = "July",
             abstract = "Increasing evidence shows that the functioning of the tropical 
                         forest biome is intimately related to the climate variability with 
                         some variables such as annual precipitation, temperature or 
                         seasonal water stress identified as key drivers of ecosystem 
                         dynamics. How tropical tree communities will respond to the future 
                         climate change is hard to predict primarily because several 
                         demographic processes act together to shape the forest ecosystem 
                         general behavior. To overcome this limitation, we used a joint 
                         individual-based model to simulate, over the next century, a 
                         tropical forest community experiencing the climate change expected 
                         in the Guiana Shield. The model is climate dependent: temperature, 
                         precipitation and water stress are used as predictors of the joint 
                         growth and mortality rates. We ran simulations for the next 
                         century using predictions of the IPCC 5AR, building three 
                         different climate scenarios (optimistic RCP2.6, intermediate, 
                         pessimistic RCP8.5) and a control (current climate). The basal 
                         area, above-ground fresh biomass, quadratic diameter, tree growth 
                         and mortality rates were then computed as summary statistics to 
                         characterize the resulting forest ecosystem. Whatever the 
                         scenario, all ecosystem process and structure variables exhibited 
                         decreasing values as compared to the control. A sensitivity 
                         analysis identified the temperature as the strongest climate 
                         driver of this behavior, highlighting a possible 
                         temperature-driven drop of 40% in average forest growth. This 
                         conclusion is alarming, as temperature rises have been 
                         consensually predicted by all climate scenarios of the IPCC 5AR. 
                         Our study highlights the potential slow-down danger that tropical 
                         forests will face in the Guiana Shield during the next century.",
                  doi = "10.1038/s41598-019-46597-8",
                  url = "http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/s41598-019-46597-8",
                 issn = "2045-2322",
             language = "en",
           targetfile = "aubry_temperature.pdf",
        urlaccessdate = "23 maio 2024"
}