@Article{OrtegaMaDiRaArLoBi:2019:MeLiCr,
author = "Ortega, Jean C. G. and Machado, Nath{\'a}lia and Diniz Filho,
Jos{\'e} Alexandre Felizola and Rangel, Thiago F. and
Ara{\'u}jo, Miguel B. and Loyola, Rafael and Bini, Luiz
Maur{\'{\i}}cio",
affiliation = "{Universidade Federal de Goi{\'a}s (UFG)} and {Universidade
Federal de Goi{\'a}s (UFG)} and {Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas
Espaciais (INPE)} and {Universidade Federal de Goi{\'a}s (UFG)}
and {Museo Nacional de Ciencias Naturales (CSIC)} and {Instituto
Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais (INPE)} and {Instituto Nacional de
Pesquisas Espaciais (INPE)}",
title = "Meta-analyzing the likely cross-species responses to climate
change",
journal = "Ecology and Evolution",
year = "2019",
volume = "9",
number = "19",
pages = "11136--11144",
month = "Oct.",
keywords = "ecological niche modeling, global warming, meta-analysis, range
size, species distribution, uncertainty.",
abstract = "Ecological Niche Models (ENMs) have different performances in
predicting potential geographic distributions. Here we
meta-analyzed the likely effects of climate change on the
potential geographic distribution of 1,205 bird species from the
Neotropical region, modeled using eight ENMs and three
Atmosphere-Ocean General Circulation Models (AOGCM). We considered
the variability in ENMs performance to estimate a weighted mean
difference between potential geographic distributions for baseline
and future climates. On average, potential future ranges were
projected to be from 25.7% to 44.5% smaller than current potential
ranges across species. However, we found that 0.2% to 18.3% of the
total variance in range shifts occurred {"}within species{"}
(i.e., owing to the use of different modeling techniques and
climate models) and 81.7% to 99.8% remained between species (i.e.,
it could be explained by ecological correlates). Using
meta-analytical techniques akin to regression, we also showed that
potential range shifts are barely predicted by bird biological
traits. We demonstrated that one can combine and reduce
species-specific effects with high uncertainty in ENMs and also
explore potential causes of climate change effect on species using
meta-analytical tools. We also highlight that the search for
powerful correlates of climate change-induced range shifts can be
a promising line of investigation.",
doi = "10.1002/ece3.5617",
url = "http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/ece3.5617",
issn = "2045-7758",
language = "en",
targetfile = "Ortega_meta.pdf",
urlaccessdate = "03 jun. 2024"
}